Bob Schaffer's Most Confident Prediction Needed to Secure a Victory Tomorrow

The Pueblo Chieftain reports a confident prediction from the Republican candidate in Colorado's U.S. Senate race:

Former U.S. Rep. Bob Schaffer drew heavily on that theme Saturday morning as he spoke to about 40 fellow Pueblo Republicans about his Senate race against U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo, at the McCain-Palin headquarters Pueblo office on Main Street. Schaffer has been trailing Udall in recent polls but he argued that was also true for past GOP winners, including retiring U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard and former Gov. Bill Owens.

Noting that he'd sat with both men at a recent rally for Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain, Schaffer said, "Senator Allard told me he'd have been glad to be just 5 points down in the polls at this time (in 2002). And he went on to win by 4 points."

This is an exaggeration, but still contains hope for a shred of optimism. The final Denver Post poll before the 2002 election had Tom Strickland leading Wayne Allard 42-41. Allard indeed won by 4 points - a 5-point swing in his direction.

Trailing by 4 points according to the Post's final poll, Bob Schaffer would need a similar favorable swing to eke out a victory. Except the unpredictable dynamics of 2008 make this development far from a guarantee. We'll refrain from making our own prediction, but will report back to comment on the final results tomorrow evening.

And regardless of the polls, get out and vote.

Denver Post: Bob Schaffer-Mark Udall Race Closer Than Many Have Suggested

No one is saying that Bob Schaffer is exactly a lock, or even a favorite, at this point. But obituaries of his campaign have been written prematurely. Polls showing Mark Udall with a double-digit lead? You think they might be skewed a bit?

From today's Denver Post:

Overall, Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer by 47 percent to 43 percent, a small drop from the five-point lead he enjoyed in a Denver Post poll a month ago and one that shows a significantly smaller lead for Udall than other recent polls.

Green Party candidate Bob Kinsey is the choice for 3 percent of voters, while 7 percent remain undecided.

The Post's survey mirrors the result of the Schaffer campaign's own internal polling, which Friday showed Udall with a 46-43 lead.

Tuesday will tell us the whole story, and turnout will be a big factor.

Schaffer, Udall In "Dead Heat", Tied 44-44

Looks like Mark Udall is taking a u-turn in terms of support from Colorado voters.

One poll? An outlier.

Two polls in a row? A trend--possibly.

Things aren't looking to good for our favorite Boulder liberal, Mark Udall:

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, and Republican Robert Schaffer are tied 44 - 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 38 percent Udall lead June 26.

Schaffer managed to erase (and Udall managed to lose) a ten-point deficit in under a month.

Some of the spinmeisters at ColoradoPols have been working themselves up into a lather making excuses about poll reliability, the fact its only July, etc., when only a week ago they were trumpeting the CQ politics "leans Dem" prognostication and the double-digit polls as unassailable proof of Udall's electability and Schaffer's weaknesses as a candidate.

Then we had the first debate . . .

The two newest polls showing that Schaffer has closed the gap in overall poll numbers, independents (Udall's lead shrank from 21% to just 4%), and favorability (tied at 54%).

Of course this is still July, but rumors of Schaffer's early demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. If these two new polls represent a trend, then we can expect the race to continue to be neck-and-neck going into November, a true toss up, and one of the most watched races in the country.

And we still have more debates and the DNC to come.

Schaffer-Udall Race Back Within Margin of Error in Latest Poll, 47-43

The latest Rasmussen poll, conducted July 21, puts the Schaffer/Udall race back with the margin of error, where it had been for most of the race until the last six weeks or so. With Udall leading 47-43, and a MOE of +/-4.5%, this is essentially a tie, with just a 3 point difference (49-46) when "leaners" are factored in.

More importantly for Schaffer is the favorability/unfavorability rating, with both candidates at 54% (Schaffer has a 2% lead in the "very favorable" category). Three months of dedicated partisan attacks on Schaffer appear to have given Udall a temporary "bump" in the polls, but haven't appeared to hurt Schaffer's ratings otherwise, and with the poll conducted July 21, could have factored in a full week of reports in the blogosphere and even the MSM that favored Schaffer over Udall in the first debate of the campaign season. Many partisan Dems, including the DSCC, have tried to spin the first debate as at best a Udall victory, and at worst a draw. They claim that one of Schaffer's best salvos of the debate was nothing more than misinformation, and that this hurts Schaffer's credibility.

Unfortunately for Udall, it was his debate rhetoric about "working together" that fell flat on its face.

This new poll comes on the heels of the CQ Politics reassignment of the race to "leans Democratic" from "no clear favorite"--a "lagging indicator" of recent polls or a general reflection of a switch in expected outcome (SvU suspects the former)?  This conflicts with the Cook Political Report out last week that still puts the race as a "toss up."

July polls are July polls. This election year that will be even more the case, especially with the DNC in Udall's back yard. Negative backlash from the convention, due to the events themselves (Hillary party crashing, Obama flub, etc.) or outside in the streets, could damage the Udall move to the center and solidify the "liberal" appellation that he has correctly been tagged with (Boulder liberal, Colorado liberal). He needs a virtually flawless DNC to escape with his independent/unaffiliated support undamaged.

What does Schaffer need? Continued debate success, in both style (clear winner last week) and substance (each side claimed victory). One thing is clear, Schaffer's supporters were clearly more fired up than Udall's, which may be a product of Udall's recent lead (confident supporters feel less afraid of loss). An increase in ad buys and presence in the media (not merely Udall and surrogate attack ads) will increase his visibility, and more highlights from future debates should play well in charging up Republicans seeking down-ticket rally points, since Sen. John McCain won't provide much in the way of coattails. Gas prices stalled at record levels and the expected vote over the Congressional moratorium on offshore drilling in October--the Executive ban having been lifted by President Bush last Monday--could cripple a Udall juggernaut.

Exit questions--with a smidge more than 3 months to go, what do you think of the polls? Will the DNC damage Udall? Can Schaffer reverse the GOP's recent electoral woes?

**Update--a report from a commenter at SquareState doesn't bode well for Udall, with only "lukewarm" support for the Democrat in Boulder

Latest Poll Overstates Mark Udall's Lead - Bob Schaffer's Work Still Cut Out for Him

A new poll from the Democrat firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Boulder liberal Mark Udall with a 47-38 lead over Bob Schaffer.

What can we take away from the survey? That Mark Udall is still ahead, but that his lead may be starting to slip. Yes, Udall topped Schaffer 49-40 in the last Rasmussen poll, the same difference as yesterday's results. But the more recent PPP poll has a skewed sample of respondents: 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 24% Other. Actual registration figures for Colorado are: 35% Other, 34% Republican, 31% Democrat.

With partisan affiliations factored in, Mark Udall's edge is trimmed to 46-39. Interestingly, the same calculation made in the Presidential race puts Barack Obama and John McCain into a virtual dead heat in Colorado - opposed to the 47-43 Obama edge touted by PPP.

Just because the latest poll gives Mark Udall an extra two-point cushion is no great consolation. Bob Schaffer still has a lot of work to do to persuade independent voters in an uphill election year for Republicans, but highly visible debates can only help his cause.

Udall 49, Schaffer 40 In Latest Poll

Rasmussen's latest poll is out--with Udall up 9 points over Schaffer, 49-40.

Rocky Mountain Right has an updated poll tracker.

Quick key points (I'll have more later)--the Secretary of State is now two months behind on updating voter registration numbers for Colorado. With both candidates at 84% of support from their respective parties, it is clear that the battle for independents will decide the race, and this is where Udall's support has grown dramatically. He now leads 51-30, up from 45-33 last month. Though he has still not gone above the rather significant 50% threshold (with undecideds still lurking out there, and most from the much needed independents), Udall's polling strength is clear. Political tailwinds and heavy liberal attack ad buys early on are definitely playing a role, as is the fact that the Democrats' Presidential nominee is known.

The effects of the Democratic National Convention won't be known until September, the debates are still in limbo, and with just under 5 months to go, polling data is still nothing to bet the farm on--just ask the formerly presumptive Democrat nominee, Hillary Clinton.

Udall 47, Schaffer 41 In Latest Poll

PolitickerCO has the rundown of the latest Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters conducted May 19:

A new Rasmussen Reports poll of the Colorado U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Mark Udall with a 6-point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer -- the first time a Rasmussen poll has shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error.

The poll of 500 likely Colorado voters, taken on May 19, showed Udall leading Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was +/- 4.5 percentage points.

In April, Udall had a statistically insignificant 3-point lead; March's poll showed Schaffer up by a single percentage point.

In the past two months, Schaffer's overall ratings have dropped: his overall favorable rating in May of 44 percent is down 3 percentage points since April and 9 percentage points since March. His overall unfavorable rating, meanwhile, has increased 7 percentage points - from 32 percent in March to 39 percent in May.

Udall's overall favorable rating for May was 50 percent -- up two percentage points from April, but down two points from his March favorable rating. The Democrat had a May unfavorable rating of 35 percent, compared to 37 percent in April and 34 percent in March.

The first credible outside-the-margin separation favors Udall, though the favorability/unfavorability of each is staying fairly close:

With the exception of the "very favorable" category where Udall holds a fairly large lead, the candidates are almost identical, and both still have double-digit responses for "not sure."

When asked if the Schaffer/Abramoff alleged scandal had given the voter cause for concern, here were the results:

"How concerned are you about the alleged relationship between Bob Schaffer and Jack Abramoff?"

19% Very concerned

18% Somewhat concerned

24% Not very concerned

17% Not at all concerned

23% Not sure

There is certainly traction for the story, but it is difficult to discern whether that concern comes from those voters likely or undecided to vote for Schaffer in the first place. A story with resonance only among Udall's supporters won't do much more than galvanize his base, and not result in vote switching or undervoting behavior. Bet on the Udall camp and his surrogates to push this story again and again this summer and fall.

Takeaways--it is clear that Udall has broken the margin of error stalemate, which would be assumed given the widespread consensus that this is a toss-up seat leaning in Udall's favor in the media and the punditry. Anything less would be quite a disappointment for the Dems.

But it is still May and the Democrats' battle over their Presidential nominee has still not been concluded. Udall has yet to declare how he would vote as a superdelegate, nor given any indication as to what terms he would debate Schaffer this summer. And finally, the Democratic National Convention in Denver could prove to be a showcase or a debacle for Udall and the Dems, helping or hurting the candidate. With all this to consider, it is still a long road to November for Udall.

SvU's updated tracking poll and trendlines (click to enlarge):

Udall 45, Schaffer 42 In Latest Rasmussen Poll

Yet another poll within the margin of error, demonstrating that this continues to be a close race:

For the second straight month, Democrat Mark Udall holds a three-point edge over Republican Bob Schaffer in the race to become Colorado’s next United States Senator. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado found Udall attracting 45% of the vote while Schaffer earns 42%. A month ago, Udall was up 46% to 43%. Two months ago, it was Schaffer with a statistically insignificant one point lead.

This is the fourth straight Rasmussen Reports election poll to find the two candidates within three points of each other.

Pretty much putting the nail in the coffin of the outlier McLaughlin poll. This poll was conducted on April 16, after the Post's anti-Schaffer hit job appeared. No bump in the polls is evident, at least according to Rasmussen.

More from the poll, further indicating the parity of the candidates:

Both men have seen their popularity slide a bit over the past month. Udall is now viewed favorably by 48%, down four percentage points from 52% a month ago. Schaffer is now viewed favorably by 47%, down six from a month ago.

Those figures include 20% with a Very Favorable opinion of Udall and 14% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democrat. Schaffer earns Very Favorable reviews from 12% and Very Unfavorable ratings from 15%.

Udall leads by eight points among women but trails by three among women [sic]. Schaffer attracts 80% of Republicans while Udall is supported by 84% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the candidates are even.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Colorado voters say the economy is the most important voting issue of Election 2008. Twenty percent (20%) say it’s the War on Terror while 12% name immigration.

Voters who see the economy as the top issue are evenly divided between Udall and Schaffer. Those who see Iraq as the highest priority strongly prefer Udall. Schaffer dominates among those who see immigration as most important.

With unaffiliateds evenly split and given the GOP's healthy registered voter advantage over Democrats, Schaffer holds the edge. Unaffiliateds haven't broken for either candidate yet, but Udall needs to hold significant advantage there in order to overcome the disadvantage from pure party support.

How close are Schaffer and Udall? Take a look at their respective favorability ratings:


Schaffer has a combined 47% positive rating, Udall comes in at 48%. Unfavorable ratings for Schaffer and Udall sit at 37% each. Can't get any closer than that.

Schaffer v Udall's updated poll tracker (click to enlarge):


And poll tracker trendlines (click to enlarge):


**Update: Pollster.com has also updated its poll tracker, and has tossed out the outlier McLaughlin poll as well.

Schaffer, Udall Tied In Latest Poll At 45% All; McCain Beats Clinton 52-40%, And Obama 51-39%

Proving that the McLaughlin poll was a true outlier, the most recent poll conducted from March 31-April 7 by TargetPoint Consulting for New Leadership USA reveals a race that is truly up-in-the-air, tied at 45% with a MOE of +/- 4% (for the opposition--yes, this poll came before the Denver Post's alleged "scandal"):

New Leadership USA recently commissioned a statewide poll that shows a dead heat in the U.S. Senate race between Former Congressman Bob Schaffer and Congressman Mark Udall.

“This is going to be a highly competitive race between two candidates with real ideological differences,” stated New Leadership USA Communications Director, Kathy Redmond. “According to the poll, Colorado voters have serious concerns about higher taxes and a slowing economy, rejecting candidates perceived to be driving an agenda at the expense of economic growth.”

The recent poll, conducted by TargetPoint Consulting, shows that if they had to choose today, Coloradans would be divided evenly at 45% each for Schaffer and Udall.
. . .
New Leadership USA is an unincorporated nonprofit association devoted to educating citizens and communities about important issues involving education, economic growth, and jobs.
. . .
TargetPoint Consulting
n=604 Likely General Election Voters (moe +/- 4%)
March 31 – April 7, 2008

United States Senate Ballot
As you may know, this November, Coloradans will elect a new person to represent the state in the US Senate. Thinking about this race…if you had to choose today, would you vote for Republican candidate, Bob Schaffer or the Democrat Candidate Mark Udall?

Bob Schaffer 45%
Mark Udall 45
DK/Ref/Other 10

Updating the SvU tracking polls we have the current poll situation (click to enlarge):


and the polls with trendlines (click to enlarge):


If you are looking for a refutation of the non-scandal scandal from a perspective other than here at SvU, "GOPpundit" over at ColoradoPols does an admirable job.

The previous polls showing a tight race will provide a benchmark for any poll that appears both in the near future and over time. It remains to be seen how much the story will affect the polls, and if the effect is temporary or longer-lasting.

The New Leadership USA poll also waded into the Presidential race, and addressed both of the potential matchup scenarios--with John McCain winning against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Colorado:

United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Clinton)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Hillary Clinton, would you vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 52%
Hillary Clinton 40
DK/Ref/Other 8

United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Obama)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, would you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 51%
Barack Obama 39
DK/Ref/Other 10

Exit question: with the opposition's accusations of spin aside, will the Post's "April surprise" have the legs to stick around until November or will it prove to be a tempest in a teapot of accusations built on circumstantial evidence and guilt by tenuous extrapolation, forgotten by summer?

PolitickerCO: Mark Udall Interview

Jeremy Pelzer at PolitickerCO has an interview with Mark Udall:

PolitickerCO: There's a new poll out a couple days ago showing you with a 12-point lead over Bob Schaffer. But before that, as I'm sure you know, all the polls show you and Bob within the margin of error. Are you still expecting a close race through November?

Udall: [Laughs] Of course. The only poll that counts is the one on November 4 of this year. I know that's a truism, but that truly is the only contest that matters. I expect this race to be hard-fought. Colorado's a swing state. The color schemes that people like to use are, I think, of limited use, but if you want to use the color scheme we're a purple state. I do believe my record, my style, my focus will be attractive to Colorado voters, particularly independents and swing voters. And people want a change, people want problem-solving. They don't want the ideology or formulaic approaches to policy-making. And certainly that characterizes my record in the Congress and my style.

Bob Schaffer, on the other hand: if you look at his record, it speaks volumes. The difference between Bob Schaffer and myself are numerous, and I'd be happy to share that list with you. But let me say this too: my focus right now is on traveling the state, listening to people here, letting them hear what I have to say about the country's future, and introducing myself to them and undergoing what is a long, exciting and important job interview, and at a necessary point in time, then, people can draw the contrasts between Bob Schaffer and myself.

But in sum, I'm saying to people, "Here's why I want the job," not why Bob Schaffer is somehow not ready for the job -- though I think that needs to be made.

Some boilerplate, but Udall mainly takes the high road, until the small swipe at the end.

Exit question: Udall dubs himself an "independent Western Democrat"--do you buy it? Is Udall just as "mainstream" as Gov. Bill Ritter or Senator Ken Salazar claimed to be in their elections?

More On The "Latest" Schaffer-Udall Poll

The "latest" poll was tackled by Ben earlier this morning, but although it was released on March 28, the survey itself was conducted between March 6-9, nearly a month ago, and came before the most recent Rasmussen tracking poll that had Mark Udall up 46-43, within the margin of error, just like every other poll to this point:

As Ben points out, there is too little information here, hidden behind a fee wall--just like many of the other polls.

Here is the methodology blurb:

Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted statewide surveys among general election voters in Colorado (n=400), Maine (n=400) and Minnesota (n=500) between March 6th and 9th, 2008. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in statewide general elections. The accuracy of the samples of 400 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. The accuracy of the sample of 500 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval.

While their stated methodology may be sound, it is hard to put much credence into a poll with 25% undecideds, and no breakdown on which way those undecideds lean.

Rocky Mountain Right has a good tracking poll (blogroll-worthy, if you have not yet checked them out), but places this poll after the last Rasmussen poll, instead of before it, in correct chronology (not their fault, as the McLaughlin poll was released after the Rasmussen poll).

Our SvU tracking polls put the McLaughlin poll in its proper context (click to enlarge):


With trendlines:


Only the McLaughlin poll shows anything but a tight race, consistently within the margin of error.

But the national media and Beltway politicos have always expected this to be a Udall pickup for the Dems, and have dismissed the other polls showing a toss-up in favor of one outlier:

Given his lackluster performance in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, many expected that former Rep. Bob Schaffer's bid to replace retiring Senator Wayne Allard would fall similarly flat. Schaffer is assumed to be too far right for the increasingly-Democratic Colorado, and his opponent, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, has a great name and a fat bank account.

But in poll after poll, Schaffer has trailed Udall by exceedingly small margins, virtually always within the margin of error. In December, Schaffer trailed by two points. In October, the gap was just one point. Was labeling Udall as a Boulder liberal finding success? Is Colorado still a red state? Or is Schaffer manager Dick Wadhams, a former top aide to Virginia Senator George Allen, the next Karl Rove?
. . .
Before Democrats get too thrilled and claim they are guaranteed to pick up the seat, they might want to wait for a few more surveys to come out. Schaffer has a talented political team, led by Wadhams, and Udall remains well under 50%. But a twelve-point lead is what most Beltway politicos expected to see, and the McLaughlin survey proves that Schaffer, who has trailed in every poll Politics Nation has seen on the race, has a ways to go to climb out of a hole.

It is surprising to see the RealClearPolitics blogger parrot the typical MSM-Beltway consensus, when every other poll has shown a maddeningly (for Dems) tight race. The Cook Political Report's most recent analysis (March 20) still has this race as a competitive toss-up, with either party having a good chance of winning.

And as for polls in general--the polls said Hillary Clinton would be the Democrat's nominee and that John McCain was on death's door (politically), just a few months ago.

So much for polls. There will be plenty more over the next seven months, and as the saying goes, anything can happen.

Too Little Information, Too Many Qualifiers in Latest Schaffer-Udall Poll

Our resident gadfly has asked why we haven't posted anything on the recent poll results showing Mark Udall ahead of Bob Schaffer, 44-32.

The answer is simple. While some on the Left have been gleefully touting the numbers, we've been looking for the two C's: cross-tabs and context. Has this firm or agency polled this race before? If so, are there any observable trends? What methodology does the company use? How big was the sample? What was the demographic breakdown of the sample - by party registration, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, geography, etc?

If a reader has access to any of this information, please feel free to share it with us. Otherwise, there are very few conclusions that can be drawn from this information. If the Left wants to draw sweeping conclusions from this outlying survey that shows their candidate cruising to victory, that's their prerogative by all means. But frankly, any discussion that doesn't highlight the major qualifiers isn't credible.

Then again, there's also this gem from the same poll:

Nearly two-thirds of voters in Colorado (68%), Maine (72%) and Minnesota (65%) oppose the ["Employee Free Choice Act"]. Moreover, voters in Minnesota and Colorado would be less likely to support candidates who support the EFCA. Specifically, a plurality of voters would be less likely to vote for Mark Udall (44%) and Al Franken (41%) if they support this legislation. Moreover, at least 80% of voters in all three states believe that secret ballot elections are the cornerstone of democracy and should be kept for union elections.

In a poll that's an outlier showing a big lead for Mark Udall, these measures of Colorado opinion against a Big Labor bill that would take away workers' rights to a secret ballot in the workplace are a bad sign for the Left. Unless they want to argue with a straight face that this polling sample is clearly skewed to the Republican side.

Of course, Udall was a co-sponsor of the EFCA in 2007, even though he had "serious reservations" about the issue (but many union financial contributions).

For more reliable information on trends in the Schaffer-Udall race, we'll wait for the next Rasmussen tracking poll to be released.

Colorado Senate Poll March 2008--Udall 46%, Schaffer 43%

Still within the margin of error--this continues to be a close race--the latest poll just posted at Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado found that the state’s U.S. Senate race remains very close early in the general election campaign. Democrat Mark Udall now holds a very modest advantage over Republican Bob Schaffer, 46% to 43%. A month ago, Schaffer had a statistically insignificant lead of one point over Udall in the Centennial State. Both election polls had a 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error.

Schaffer earns strong support from male voters, while Udall does well among women. Udall also leads Schaffer 48% to 37% among unaffiliated voters.

The two Congressmen have very similar favorability ratings. Schaffer is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 32%. Udall is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 34%.
. . .
Like most of the nation, Colorado voters see the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election. While 39% feel it is the most important issue, 18% say the War in Iraq holds the highest importance, while Immigration is the most important issue to 12%.

Crosstabs are available to premium members only.

Rasmussen Poll: Schaffer 44, Udall 43 ... The Dead Heat Continues

The highly-reliable Rasmussen tracking poll has released fresh results for Colorado:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer holds a statistically insignificant lead over Democratic Congressman Mark Udall 44% to 43%.

Following the last Rasmussen release in late November, when Schaffer led Udall by an equally narrow and insignificant 42-to-41 edge, the race remains unmoved.

Based on the new Rasmussen survey, we now see one more reason why the Left is orchestrating a campaign to smear Schaffer early - their own candidate lags slightly in favorable opinion:

The two Congressmen have very similar favorability ratings. Schaffer is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 35%. Udall is viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 39%.

Get ready for the liberal slime and distortions to begin pouring in soon to try and bring down public opinion of the Republican candidate, as a way to make Boulder-based Udall seem less unappealing by comparison. But don't expect their expensive attacks to change the fundamental dynamic of the race: a closely-contested dead heat between candidates with clearly distinct records.

More Evidence of a Race Too Close to Call

No movement for the Schaffer-Udall Senate race in the latest rankings from the independent blog Political Realm, as Colorado still ranks fourth in likelihood of races to change party hands in November:

Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) may still have a slight edge but former Representative Bob Schaffer, not the first choice, has shown strength in recent polls that show the two neck and neck. Republicans are hoping for presidential coattails from their nominee, while Democrats are hoping the blue trend continues in Colorado. VERDICT: Toss-up

Any political junkie with spare time might want to compare the Political Realm's forecast with those done by Election Advantage or Election Projection. (And then maybe compare their prognostications with actual results later on.)

Race Looks More and More Like One Udall Could Lose

A 21-year-old political junkie from Maryland has been keeping tabs on all 35 U.S. Senate races slated for this November, and issued today his latest rankings of which seats are most likely to change party hands - with 1 most likely to change and 35 least likely to change (previous ranking in parentheses):

5) (4) Colorado (Open, Allard-R) As polls continue to show a tight race, this looks increasingly like a seat Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) can hold for the GOP. With a lead in cash and name ID, Rep. Mark Udall (D) still has a slight edge, but this is going to be one of the marquee races this year. [Emphasis added]

Not exactly what you want to read if you're a Democrat strategist or left-wing blogger, but anyone following the polls and day-to-day news from this campaign - like we do here at Schaffer v Udall - would have a very difficult time trying to refute this basic analysis.

Independent-minded conservative Republican Schaffer vs. Boulder liberal Democrat Udall: Agreeing with the "dead heat" we've been projecting for months, it seems clear that Colorado will be host to "one of the marquee races this year."

What a Liberal Thinks About the Poll

Yesterday, Ben wrote about the strange write up in Colorado Confidential of the latest poll. He wasn't the only one who noticed the Colorado Confidential spin:

What is strange to me about the poll is not the result -- it is very much what we have seen in every Colorado poll, and the race is definitely a toss-up, contrary to most people's expectations -- but the way the group that conducted it is spinning the results, as the internals reported insist on Udall's strength among his base and his appeal to moderates and Republicans, as well as on Shaffer's weakness among his base. Reading the description, one could believe that Udall was found to lead by 10%! In any case, the bottom line is that Colorado is tight.

Let this serve as a reminder. Spinning so wildly is the same as lying. We've decided to add a new label: "Colorado Confidential Caught Lying." It's not quite the same as the Big Blue Lie Machine, but a cog in that machine.

Spin on Lefty Poll Can't Get Past Fact that Colorado Senate Race is Toss-Up

Need a sign of the times for the U.S. Senate campaign for Boulder liberal Rep. Mark Udall? The reliably Left-leaning Colorado Confidential site today is touting a new poll conducted by Research for Change, Inc., run by a "lifelong Democrat" who "provides research and strategy for progressive causes and political campaigns." (Not that these easily discoverable facts are mentioned in the story.)

The big news? Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer among women and independent voters. Wow, that's different. What about the bigger picture?:

A new survey of likely Colorado voters shows Democrat Mark Udall, candidate for U.S. Senate, with a 2-percentage point lead over his Republican opponent, Bob Schaffer.

"The Schaffer people would call it a virtual tie, and the Udall people would call it a slim lead," said Mark Mehringer, of Research for Change, Inc., the group that conducted the poll.

What crafty advocacy journalism in the story's lead. Do the poll results actually show "a virtual tie" or "a slim lead"? Rather than sharing what can be determined as an objective fact, the writer casually assigns differing opinions to the two campaigns via the quote of a Left-liberal pollster. The inability to distinguish fact from opinion, a tenet in the church of relativism, appears to have crippled the Left's capacity for any basic, honest analysis.

To arbitrate the question, the story could have included the standard disclaimer about the survey's statistical margin of error, but failed to do so. Nevertheless, it's safe to assume that any sample of 500 Colorado voters yields a margin of error somewhat greater than 2 percentage points. Nor does the story give the actual percentages (Is it 42 to 40? 47 to 45? 36 to 34?).

But perhaps we trifle over small things. It's a hard to say, though, as none of the details of the alleged poll's cross-tabs are available. Readers are, however, spoon-fed selective pieces of data such as:

Udall holds a 17 percentage point lead in his own congressional district. But more curiously, Udall is only trailing Schaffer by 2 percentage points in Tancredo's heavily Republican sixth district.

No word on how big Schaffer's lead might be in his own former congressional district. Perhaps that factoid would throw a wrench into the message Colorado Confidential is trying to push.

But ultimately, that message is weak, as even the Left's propaganda machine can't twist reality enough to change the clear conventional wisdom that next year's U.S. Senate race is currently a Toss-Up. Back in April, Colorado Confidential's Jason Bane was busy touting the then-prevailing analysis that "Udall will enter the general election as the favorite." The trend of eight months in this campaign has really got the Left busy lowering its once high expectations for their favorite liberal son from Boulder.

So let's recap: A poll commissioned by Left wing groups finds that their once sureshot candidate is in a statistical dead heat and can only spin it that he still leads among groups in which he has already been leading. But no context of previous polls in the Schaffer-Udall race.

Nice try, Colorado Confidential. Keep lowering the expectations for Udall. But it's hard to hide the past.

They Call The Wind Maria

In the enthusiasm over the poll results, our fellow bloggers appear to have missed this quote from Rothenberg:

Now, state voters will have a clear choice between liberal Cong. Mark Udall (D) and conservative former congressman Bob Schaffer (R). Neither man is running from party or ideological labels, but each believes he fits the state better.

Actually, Mark Udall is moving farther left by choosing to "blog" on MoveOn.org.

Meanwhile, we update our scoreboard:

The Mark Udall is not a moderate scoreboard:
extremist 2
reliably left wing 7
liberal 26
moderate 0
conservative (chuckle)

We started this scoreboard when we noticed that liberal blogs and the msm were routinely calling Mark Udall a "liberal," "reliably left wing," and even "extremist." We do not count comments from conservative blogs and we didn't count a comment on a liberal show by a conservative politician. Those who would like to check our methodology can follow the bread crumbs backwards.

On Kittens and Grooming

When a kitten is taken from its mother before it learns to groom itself, it never learns to groom itself.

Mark Udall is in need of a comb. This isn't the first time we made that observation. It is said that you dress for the job you want. Our garbage men show up with combed hair more often than Mark Udall does, and they only come once a week.

Today's fashion statement picture was in the Grand Junction Sentinel.

The accompanying article has an interesting quote in it that is very likely another lie from the Mark Udall camp:

“This is solely about bolstering the base,” [ Mike ] Melanson said. “This is indicative of what we’ve been seeing in our research that Bob Schaffer has been having problems in his own base and this is about trying to scare Republicans back into the fold.”

Udall's minions are telling the left wing blogosphere in response to the latest poll showing a toss-up that their internal polls always showed the race to be close. Ok, Melanson, which is it? It reminds one of Mark Udall's Cornfusion, where he told three different audiences what they wanted to hear about corn ethanol.