Hill Consulting: Udall 43, Schaffer 38; Rasmussen: Udall 51, Schaffer 44

Facing a stiff national political headwind, Bob Schaffer no doubt is currently trailing in Colorado's race for the U.S. Senate. But polling distortions have Lefties gleefully imagining that Mark Udall leads by 11 - or even 14 - points. Okay, let's get real for a moment.

Hill Research Consultants, a firm with an excellent track record in Colorado, sent a memo to its client the Bob Schaffer campaign yesterday with some heartening news:

As you know, following the financial turmoil in the markets, ballot shares for the Republican candidates, John McCain and Bob Schaffer, were down. But I am pleased to report that in the past three days there has been a return to the Republicans, narrowing the deficit to just outside the margin of error.

What are the results according to Hill's tracking survey?

Mark Udall 43
Bob Schaffer 38
Other candidates 6
Undecided 13

And according to Hill, the characteristics of the undecided voting population indicate they likely will break in Bob Schaffer's direction. At this stage in the game, Mark Udall remains the beneficiary of some national anti-Republican sentiment and the favorite to prevail on November 4. Rasmussen has Udall ahead by seven, 51-44.

But it ain't quite over yet.

New Hill Research Consultants Poll a Reason for Guarded Bob Schaffer Optimism

Recent polls in Colorado's U.S. Senate race have shown Boulder liberal Mark Udall with a small lead over Bob Schaffer. The latest Rasmussen Report had Udall gaining from the July survey to reach a 47-41 advantage. Suffolk University's poll of 450 likely voters gave Udall an 8-point lead, and the Mason-Dixon outlier (surveying 400 voters) said Schaffer was down by 10.

Then out of the blue comes this interesting poll:

The poll, conducted by Hill Research Consultants - Schaffer's regular pollster - among 553 likely Colorado voters Aug. 23 and 24, shows Udall leading Schaffer 41 percent to 38 percent. That's within the survey's +/- 4.2 percent margin of error.

Are there reasons to give more credence to this latest survey? Hill surveyed more likely voters than Suffolk or Mason-Dixon did, and he employs a different methodology. Hill has 18 years of experience polling in Colorado, and was the only pollster to call U.S. Senator Wayne Allard's re-election victory in 2002.

The conclusion of Hill's analysis is most intriguing:

Turnout is likely to be extremely crucial to the outcome of this race. Without a huge turnout that includes the participation of many who have never voted in Colorado, Udall appears doomed. He trails Schaffer among the voters who voted in 2004 or 2006, falling farther behind those who voted in both. Udall leads Schaffer only among voters who have been registered to vote for five years or less. Among voters we judge most-likely-to-vote by a multi-item scale of propensity to vote—including demographics, past participation, and expressed interest in this election—Schaffer leads Udall by 2 percentages points, a net shift of 5 points from the results of the total sample.

On the other hand, it's vital to note that Hill is working for the Bob Schaffer campaign, and cross-tabs are not available to provide an independent analysis of the voting sample. Therefore, this poll should be taken by Schaffer supporters with guarded optimism. Another reliable survey reflecting similar results would be even more encouraging. But then again, maybe Hill is poised to repeat his 2002 performance.

(Apologies that further analysis of recent polls hasn't appeared here. Our poll tracker expert El Presidente has been especially busy covering the Democratic National Convention for the Peoples Press Collective. Then he's off to the Republican National Convention to provide blog coverage. Hopefully he can add his insights when he returns from all the hoopla.)

Rasmussen Results Show Senate Race as Dead Heat: Schaffer 42, Udall 41

The highly reputable Rasmussen polling firm has released its latest round of campaign survey results, and found next year's Colorado U.S. Senate race to be a dead heat:

Former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) and Congressman Mark Udall (D)—vying for the open seat vacated by retiring Senator Wayne Allard, a Republican—are virtually tied when likely Colorado voters consider their state’s 2008 Senate election. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Schaffer with 42% of the vote while Udall earns 41%.

In late August, Udall had a slight lead of 45-40 (Hill Consultants). In early October, Colorado Democrat pollster Floyd Ciruli showed the race in a dead heat of 36-35, with a large number of undecideds. One month ago, Roll Call and Survey USA charted Udall with a 48-41 advantage.

A few weeks ago, we picked up on the slow-moving trend of this race toward the Republican candidate. Now the growing collection of polling data from diverse sources over the past few months is available to give political observers the reasonable assessment that Colorado's Senate race going into 2008 is indeed a Toss-Up. Ladies and gentlemen, this contest is up for grabs.