Rasmussen Results Show Senate Race as Dead Heat: Schaffer 42, Udall 41

The highly reputable Rasmussen polling firm has released its latest round of campaign survey results, and found next year's Colorado U.S. Senate race to be a dead heat:

Former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) and Congressman Mark Udall (D)—vying for the open seat vacated by retiring Senator Wayne Allard, a Republican—are virtually tied when likely Colorado voters consider their state’s 2008 Senate election. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Schaffer with 42% of the vote while Udall earns 41%.

In late August, Udall had a slight lead of 45-40 (Hill Consultants). In early October, Colorado Democrat pollster Floyd Ciruli showed the race in a dead heat of 36-35, with a large number of undecideds. One month ago, Roll Call and Survey USA charted Udall with a 48-41 advantage.

A few weeks ago, we picked up on the slow-moving trend of this race toward the Republican candidate. Now the growing collection of polling data from diverse sources over the past few months is available to give political observers the reasonable assessment that Colorado's Senate race going into 2008 is indeed a Toss-Up. Ladies and gentlemen, this contest is up for grabs.

New Poll Results

The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that the race is a dead heat between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall.

According to Ciruli's poll, Udall has 36 percent of voter support and Schaffer 35 percent, with 9 percent hoping someone else will join the race and 21 percent undecided.

Of course, the Rocky got comments from both camps, with the most interesting comment from the Mark Udall camp:

Mike Melanson, Udall's campaign manager, said Schaffer is having trouble with his Republican base because he opposed Referendum C, a measure approved by voters to shore up the state budget and had support from many Republicans, including business leaders.

We suspect that this is wishful thinking. This writer voted for Refs C and D and has come to regret it. It passed with 52%, which isn't a big margin. If C and D were up again, and they may well be in 2010, it isn't certain that either would pass. Further, if Bill Ritter hooks his star to tax increases, as he seems to be doing, it isn't certain that he would win reelection.

Another Nail in the "Liberal" Coffin

From Real Clear Politics:

Centrist Democrats have succeeded in Colorado of late. The elections of Governor Bill Ritter and Senator Ken Salazar reenergized the party. But Mark Udall isn't exactly in the mold of either Ritter or Salazar. [ Floyd ] Ciruli calls him "a much more across-the-board liberal," but hastens to point out that the liberal label may not stick.

The question is not whether Mark Udall, (D) Boulder, can avoid the dreaded "L" word. It is whether he can avoid being called an extremist as the Gazette has come close to doing two times. Our bet is that he'll count himself lucky to be labeled "Liberal."

Since we are keeping score:
Extremist 2
Liberal 2
Moderate 0
Conservative (Bite your tongue)