Dynamics of Campaign Slowly Turning Against Udall

The earlier conventional wisdom that the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Colorado was Boulder liberal Rep. Mark Udall's to lose has clearly become yesterday's news. Chris Cillizza from the Washington Post, who is following the Senate races as closely as anyone can from inside the Beltway, released his latest rankings today. Colorado has moved from third to fourth in the most likely to switch party control Line:

The downward trajectory isn't because we think Republican prospects have improved markedly here, but rather because when compared the demographics of Colorado to those of the states ranked higher, it's clear there is a larger Republican base here than elsewhere. After a slow start, Mark Udall's fundraising has picked up nicely; he brought in more than $1.1 million in the third quarter and now has $3.1 million in the bank. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) is holding his own on the fundraising front, with $801,000 raised and $1.1 million in the bank. Given the open-seat problems Republicans have in Virginia and New Mexico, national Republican could well choose to focus their financial firepower on Colorado -- a state that looks like it could stay in the GOP column if the right sort of race is run. [emphasis added]

Nearly a year before election day, and the dynamics of the campaign continue to shift slowly away from Udall and the Democrats. The longer they fail to realize it, the better.