Rasmussen Reports, the gold standard of polling, released the latest results in Colorado's U.S. Senate race, showing an ever-tightening trend since June. The last time the showdown between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer was so close was in February: Udall 48, Schaffer 46. This result confirms the recent but less reliable National Journal survey results that also showed Udall leading within the margin of error, 41-38.
Lefty bloggers have been doing their bazookie dances over two other recent polls showing Mark Udall leading 48-40. One of them, conducted by Democrat-sponsored Public Policy Polling, skewed results by oversampling Democrat voters. Nice try. Quinnipiac has a bit more clout, but hasn't polled as consistently as Rasmussen.
The gold-standard Rasmussen and the less reliable National Journal paint a more nuanced picture of the state of the race than the hallucinating triumphalists on the Left will admit. But that's okay. The hard numbers should have Mark Udall supporters a little more uneasy. Complacency suits them just fine.
Bottom line: this race is going down to the wire, with a critical nationally-televised debate coming this Sunday on Meet the Press.
Showing posts with label Public Policy Polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Public Policy Polling. Show all posts
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Latest Poll Overstates Mark Udall's Lead - Bob Schaffer's Work Still Cut Out for Him
A new poll from the Democrat firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Boulder liberal Mark Udall with a 47-38 lead over Bob Schaffer.
What can we take away from the survey? That Mark Udall is still ahead, but that his lead may be starting to slip. Yes, Udall topped Schaffer 49-40 in the last Rasmussen poll, the same difference as yesterday's results. But the more recent PPP poll has a skewed sample of respondents: 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 24% Other. Actual registration figures for Colorado are: 35% Other, 34% Republican, 31% Democrat.
With partisan affiliations factored in, Mark Udall's edge is trimmed to 46-39. Interestingly, the same calculation made in the Presidential race puts Barack Obama and John McCain into a virtual dead heat in Colorado - opposed to the 47-43 Obama edge touted by PPP.
Just because the latest poll gives Mark Udall an extra two-point cushion is no great consolation. Bob Schaffer still has a lot of work to do to persuade independent voters in an uphill election year for Republicans, but highly visible debates can only help his cause.
What can we take away from the survey? That Mark Udall is still ahead, but that his lead may be starting to slip. Yes, Udall topped Schaffer 49-40 in the last Rasmussen poll, the same difference as yesterday's results. But the more recent PPP poll has a skewed sample of respondents: 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 24% Other. Actual registration figures for Colorado are: 35% Other, 34% Republican, 31% Democrat.
With partisan affiliations factored in, Mark Udall's edge is trimmed to 46-39. Interestingly, the same calculation made in the Presidential race puts Barack Obama and John McCain into a virtual dead heat in Colorado - opposed to the 47-43 Obama edge touted by PPP.
Just because the latest poll gives Mark Udall an extra two-point cushion is no great consolation. Bob Schaffer still has a lot of work to do to persuade independent voters in an uphill election year for Republicans, but highly visible debates can only help his cause.
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