Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--April Update

The latest numbers from the Secretary of State's office--

Republicans--1017738
Democrats--900823
Unaffiliated--1013548
Total--2932109

SvU's voter affiliation tracker has been updated:

Previous coverage here.

**Update--
As it gets closer to the election, these numbers will help to predict the final outcome as voter turnout percentages (overall), party voter support for candidates (percentage of registered party members that vote for their party's candidate), and the great unknown of the unaffiliateds. Democrats must have the unaffiliateds break their way if the parties' own voters show up in roughly the same proportion and vote in roughly the same percentage. The GOP still owns the pure registration advantage over Democrats, and a high voter turnout and a split independent vote will tilt the advantage ever so slightly in favor of the GOP (at least in general election voter terms). Even a slight advantage may do nothing more than stanch the bleeding of recent electoral losses. Coattails of each party's nominee will also likely provide further help (or hindrance) to the state's Senate candidates and other downticket elections.

Safe prediction? Turnout will be somewhere between 80 and 90% in 2008.

Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--March Update

From the Sec. of State's office, these updated figures for March 2008 of Colorado's voter registration numbers and party affiliation:

Democrats--893,472
Unaffiliateds--1,008,675
Republicans--1,015,993

Since February 2008:
Democrats +7,849
Unaffiliteds +5,672
Republicans +2,527

The trend since January 2004:



Takeaways--the rapid trend for the state's unaffiliated ranks continues, as Republican recovery rate lags behind that of both unaffiliateds and Democrats since early 2007.

It will also be important to watch the numbers heading into the summer, and especially the final two reports--September and October--following the Democratic National Convention. Should Recreate '68 and its allies create the disruption and mayhem they are so eager to achieve, it may not matter if unaffiliateds have overtaken Republicans as the largest voting bloc in Colorado. Voter backlash against the Democrats could be considerable statewide, if not nationally, especially if the Democrats add insult to injury by having a heated, brokered convention.

Stay tuned.

Cross posted from Slapstick Politics

Colorado Voter Registration Numbers And "Uncommitted" Dems Spell Trouble For Udall

Ben DeGrow points out in the previous post that Rep. Mark Udall captured only 67% of the Democrat vote in the Senate preference poll against a weak candidate, with 32% of Democrats polled remaining "uncommitted".

This is not good news for Udall the Senate candidate--the latest Colorado voter registration numbers have been released (more complete analysis at Slapstick Politics), and a growing unaffiliated bloc stands in contrast to a stagnant Democrat base, which Udall obviously hasn't fired up enough with 32% refraining from selecting him in an essentially non-binding preference poll.

Here is a quick look at those voter registration numbers (click to enlarge):

Both candidates and parties explicitly acknowledge the enormous importance of the "unaffiliated" bloc in Colorado politics, determining as it has the state's recent slide to purple with the election of Democrats at the state and local levels since 2004.

What these new voter numbers and causus poll results indicate is that both Bob Schaffer and Udall will have to "secure the base"--a much easier task for both without a nasty primary--and then move to gain an advantage among the unaffiliateds, who have grown by over 90,000 since early 2004.

A lack of party support in the form of "uncommitted" Democrat voters in a preference poll lacking a formidable primary opponent demonstrates the weakness of a Udall candidacy even within his own party (in spite of early declarations by the MSM and pundits that Udall was all but guaranteed Sen. Wayne Allard's vacated seat, and a hefty campaign war chest).

Though Udall, Sen. Ken Salazar and Gov. Bill Ritter are all Democrats, the latter two won state-wide elections on relatively "moderate" records and campaigned as such to garner support from the unaffiliateds in the "center". Udall's campaign has tried desperately to paint Schaffer as "outside the mainstream" when in fact it is the Boulder liberal Udall who faces the rather daunting task of trying to move to the middle by running from his own record (even while embracing it back in the People's Republic).

The larger point is that any sizeable unaffiliated advantage that Udall will be contrasted with a less-than-unanimous base. A strong candidate, running virtually unopposed (Benner was never a serious candidate) should garner a larger showing in a preference poll than 67%. Before Udall attempts to grab the great Colorado unaffiliated bloc, he should ask why his base was less than enthusiastic back on February 5.