Colorado Voter Registration Numbers And "Uncommitted" Dems Spell Trouble For Udall

Ben DeGrow points out in the previous post that Rep. Mark Udall captured only 67% of the Democrat vote in the Senate preference poll against a weak candidate, with 32% of Democrats polled remaining "uncommitted".

This is not good news for Udall the Senate candidate--the latest Colorado voter registration numbers have been released (more complete analysis at Slapstick Politics), and a growing unaffiliated bloc stands in contrast to a stagnant Democrat base, which Udall obviously hasn't fired up enough with 32% refraining from selecting him in an essentially non-binding preference poll.

Here is a quick look at those voter registration numbers (click to enlarge):

Both candidates and parties explicitly acknowledge the enormous importance of the "unaffiliated" bloc in Colorado politics, determining as it has the state's recent slide to purple with the election of Democrats at the state and local levels since 2004.

What these new voter numbers and causus poll results indicate is that both Bob Schaffer and Udall will have to "secure the base"--a much easier task for both without a nasty primary--and then move to gain an advantage among the unaffiliateds, who have grown by over 90,000 since early 2004.

A lack of party support in the form of "uncommitted" Democrat voters in a preference poll lacking a formidable primary opponent demonstrates the weakness of a Udall candidacy even within his own party (in spite of early declarations by the MSM and pundits that Udall was all but guaranteed Sen. Wayne Allard's vacated seat, and a hefty campaign war chest).

Though Udall, Sen. Ken Salazar and Gov. Bill Ritter are all Democrats, the latter two won state-wide elections on relatively "moderate" records and campaigned as such to garner support from the unaffiliateds in the "center". Udall's campaign has tried desperately to paint Schaffer as "outside the mainstream" when in fact it is the Boulder liberal Udall who faces the rather daunting task of trying to move to the middle by running from his own record (even while embracing it back in the People's Republic).

The larger point is that any sizeable unaffiliated advantage that Udall will be contrasted with a less-than-unanimous base. A strong candidate, running virtually unopposed (Benner was never a serious candidate) should garner a larger showing in a preference poll than 67%. Before Udall attempts to grab the great Colorado unaffiliated bloc, he should ask why his base was less than enthusiastic back on February 5.

Faux Candidacy Over?

The Denver Post is reporting that Mark Benner, who was running aginst Mark Udall as a matter of form only is likely at the end of his rope as a candidate:

Mark Benner, the insurgent Democratic candidate for Colorado's open U.S. Senate seat, got just 1.2 percent of the vote in the preference poll taken during the party caucuses Feb. 5, according to results released by the party Tuesday.

Although there is a slim chance that Benner could rally delegates in county conventions, his showing in the poll virtually ends his candidacy.

We speculated that he never was serious and that this was nothing more than an attempt to make Mark Udall look more "centrist" in the same way Mike Miles made Ken Salazar look more centrist in 2004.

If the purpose is to make Mark Udall seem centrist, it has already backfired. The Denver Post, as our fellow bloggers pointed out yesterday called [ Mark ] Udall "solidly liberal" in response to the [ Mark ] Benner candidacy. Those are words it will find it difficult to take back.

A Little Remediation for Out-of-State Observers

A new team of Web writers for "The Seminal" - originally from Northwestern University, no less - has declared its intention "to follow four key Senate races in 2008," including Colorado. Like the authors of Schaffer v Udall, these writers are independent (or so they assert), but unlike us they are avowedly Leftward-leaning. Here's their introduction to Colorado:

With republican [sic] incumbent Wayne Allard out of the race, Colorado is looking like one of the best pickup opportunities the Democrats have in 2008. Possible Republican candidates for the seat include former U.S. Rep. Bob Schaffer, Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf, U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez and a slew of others.

The Democratic challenger will be popular Congressman Mark Udall. Udall is a strong proponent of responsible redeployment from Iraq, as he explains in this statement:

We must end our continued entanglement in this war, but we must do so in a way that inhibits the development of terrorist bases, manages to salvage our national reputation in the region and keeps faith with the humanitarian obligation we have to the Iraqi people.

I believe that we should begin the process with a phased withdrawal that makes clear to the Iraqi political leadership that they alone have the ultimate power to settle their differences and build a stable society. America can help. The United Nations should help. But in the end, the solution to unending war in Iraq rests with the political will of the Iraqi people.

He is also focusing his campaign on education, health care and energy independence. You can contribute to Udall's campaign here.

Since I look forward to reading their analysis of the race in the coming weeks and months, I thought it would be best first, as a kind gesture, to save some of their readers from confusion and misinformation, and to point out the need to stay up-to-date with events in our fair Centennial State.

Basic facts:

1. Wayne Wolf is running for the 3rd Congressional District, not the Senate.

2. Bob Schaffer is the only declared Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race. Bob Beauprez, who is not running, wrote on his own blog in early October:

Udall’s chief opponent in his quest for the Senate is the rock solid Bob Schaffer, but the Boulder liberal is also concerned that he may get challenged by a candidate from the left that could slice off 5-7% of the electorate that otherwise would be his.

3. Speaking of a marginal challenge from Udall's Left, the only other declared candidate in this race from either major party is Left-wing Kucinich activist Mark Benner.

Other observations:

1. Udall, who The Seminal describes as favoring "responsible redeployment from Iraq," has voted several times for an irresponsible "cut-and-run" strategy, even as the "surge" showed signs of success.

2. For awhile, the issue statements on Udall's site were down. As a public service, we reposted some of them here.

3. To provide balance to The Seminal's link to Udall's contribution page, here is where you can go to donate money to the campaign of principled former Congressman Bob Schaffer.

Udall's Challenger A Moonbat "Gadfly"

But you already knew that, if that candidate were to challenge Mark Udall from his left:

Slotted modestly between a slide show on single-payer health care and a raucous, interactive game during which audience members competed to identify the most felonies committed by President Bush, Democrat Mark Benner announced his decision to run for Colorado's open Senate seat.

The scene in a Denver vegetarian cafe this weekend underscored the unabashedly left-wing character of Benner's nomination challenge to Mark Udall, the five-term congressman from Boulder County whose campaign has already raised more than $3.5 million.

But it was a threadbare announcement that suggested this will be something less than a substantial primary run — or that Udall will have to spend much of that war chest to win the nomination.
. . .
Instead, Benner is hoping to wage a low-budget political insurgency designed to force Udall to the left on two key issues cherished by progressives — single-payer health care and the impeachment of Bush.
. . .
Experts say chances of a resource-lean, grassroots campaign like Benner's catching fire this year are slim — not the least because his much more experienced competitor is already solidly liberal.

But apparently not BDS, impeachment, and socialized-nannystatist enough for the moonbat progressive wing of the Democrat party.

Chalk up another MSM "liberal" tally for the scoreboard!

Oops!

It seems that we have been misspelling Mark Benner's name as Mark Brenner. Thanks to the wonders of blogging, we have fixed that. Our apologies to this obviously serious man.

PlagiarismNowAction Having Technical Problems

It seems that someone at PlagiarismNowAction accidentally deleted a post. We're just trying to help in case it happens again. (If you wonder why we would call them that, follow the PlagiarismNowAction tag)

I posted this EARLIER Today but it was deleted.

This is the second posting about Benner's challenge to Udall that has been deleted without prior notice.

I think someone at ProgressNowAction is "looking" for a reason to delete their most active blogger and activist and kill the effort to have a debate in the Senate race on the issues.

I'll try this again. Below is the deleted posting.

Subject: Mark Benner of Anton to run as a Democrat for US Senate against Udall,

To Announce tonight at Mercury Cafe event 7 pm in Denver.

Mark Benner Democrat of Anton CO tells me that I am authorized to tell you that he will announce his candidacy for Colorado's open US Senate seat as a Colorado Democrat tonight at 7 pm at the Mercury Cafe in Denver during a previously scheduled event

Make no mistake. We are not promoting Mark Benner's candidacy. When other blogs have technical problems, losing posts and such, we try to be good neighbors and help them out. It looks like we had our own problems, but that happens.

Trouble in Udall Land

Mark Udall is about as far left as we imagine it is possible for a Colorado politician, even a Boulder Liberal, can get and still expect to be reelected.

He is so far to the left that we have a scoreboard feature that tracks the number of times his liberal blogging allies and the msm refer to him as a liberal, reliably left wing, and even extremist. That scoreboard is in the upper right corner of this site.

Now, PlagiarismNowAction has a post up whose only goal is to push Mark Udall even farther left. (Those who wonder why we call PlagiarismNowAction by that name are welcome to search this blog under that term for an explanation.)

He [Mark Benner ] plans to run on the issues. Issues important to him include the environment, torture, withdrawal from Iraq, and holding Bush and Cheney accountable with investigations and impeachment if warranted.

He is being pressured by Democratic Party elites not to run. He will need your support to buck the system. Call and encourage him.

I am a 42 year Democratic supporter. I am a (L)iberal. I believe a challenger could very possibly potentially siphon enough votes from Udall to force him to move left on the issues.

Unlike left wing blogs which are engaged in a never ending attempt to promote Republican primaries, we have much more class than to try to interfere in or promote this primary. It will happen or it won't happen completely independent of what we might do or say. We are merely reporting on it.

Schaffer v Benner?

In what might be a cynical ploy to make Mark Udall look like the moderate (chuckle) he can no way claim to be, a far, far left wing member of the state Democrat executive committee is making noises about entering the primary against Udall.

The name is Mark Benner, and he would supposedly run against Udall on an impeachment platform, a cut and run platform, and a drive the health care system into the ground platform.

Yes, we admit that this guy makes Mark Udall look a little less wild-eyed in comparison, but so would Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (with whom Udall had a recent photo - op and now we know why).

Where do the Democrats find these loons? Oh, we forgot, the loon in the attic is coming to Denver this summer and he will want a bird of that feather around to roost next to. Mark Udall, who usually flocks with the Ohio loon will be busy helping push Hillary over the line (or off the cliff, as the case may be).