Colorado Voter Registration Numbers And "Uncommitted" Dems Spell Trouble For Udall

Ben DeGrow points out in the previous post that Rep. Mark Udall captured only 67% of the Democrat vote in the Senate preference poll against a weak candidate, with 32% of Democrats polled remaining "uncommitted".

This is not good news for Udall the Senate candidate--the latest Colorado voter registration numbers have been released (more complete analysis at Slapstick Politics), and a growing unaffiliated bloc stands in contrast to a stagnant Democrat base, which Udall obviously hasn't fired up enough with 32% refraining from selecting him in an essentially non-binding preference poll.

Here is a quick look at those voter registration numbers (click to enlarge):

Both candidates and parties explicitly acknowledge the enormous importance of the "unaffiliated" bloc in Colorado politics, determining as it has the state's recent slide to purple with the election of Democrats at the state and local levels since 2004.

What these new voter numbers and causus poll results indicate is that both Bob Schaffer and Udall will have to "secure the base"--a much easier task for both without a nasty primary--and then move to gain an advantage among the unaffiliateds, who have grown by over 90,000 since early 2004.

A lack of party support in the form of "uncommitted" Democrat voters in a preference poll lacking a formidable primary opponent demonstrates the weakness of a Udall candidacy even within his own party (in spite of early declarations by the MSM and pundits that Udall was all but guaranteed Sen. Wayne Allard's vacated seat, and a hefty campaign war chest).

Though Udall, Sen. Ken Salazar and Gov. Bill Ritter are all Democrats, the latter two won state-wide elections on relatively "moderate" records and campaigned as such to garner support from the unaffiliateds in the "center". Udall's campaign has tried desperately to paint Schaffer as "outside the mainstream" when in fact it is the Boulder liberal Udall who faces the rather daunting task of trying to move to the middle by running from his own record (even while embracing it back in the People's Republic).

The larger point is that any sizeable unaffiliated advantage that Udall will be contrasted with a less-than-unanimous base. A strong candidate, running virtually unopposed (Benner was never a serious candidate) should garner a larger showing in a preference poll than 67%. Before Udall attempts to grab the great Colorado unaffiliated bloc, he should ask why his base was less than enthusiastic back on February 5.

Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--April Update

The latest numbers from the Secretary of State's office--

Republicans--1017738
Democrats--900823
Unaffiliated--1013548
Total--2932109

SvU's voter affiliation tracker has been updated:

Previous coverage here.

**Update--
As it gets closer to the election, these numbers will help to predict the final outcome as voter turnout percentages (overall), party voter support for candidates (percentage of registered party members that vote for their party's candidate), and the great unknown of the unaffiliateds. Democrats must have the unaffiliateds break their way if the parties' own voters show up in roughly the same proportion and vote in roughly the same percentage. The GOP still owns the pure registration advantage over Democrats, and a high voter turnout and a split independent vote will tilt the advantage ever so slightly in favor of the GOP (at least in general election voter terms). Even a slight advantage may do nothing more than stanch the bleeding of recent electoral losses. Coattails of each party's nominee will also likely provide further help (or hindrance) to the state's Senate candidates and other downticket elections.

Safe prediction? Turnout will be somewhere between 80 and 90% in 2008.

Colorado Voter Registration And Party Affiliation--March Update

From the Sec. of State's office, these updated figures for March 2008 of Colorado's voter registration numbers and party affiliation:

Democrats--893,472
Unaffiliateds--1,008,675
Republicans--1,015,993

Since February 2008:
Democrats +7,849
Unaffiliteds +5,672
Republicans +2,527

The trend since January 2004:



Takeaways--the rapid trend for the state's unaffiliated ranks continues, as Republican recovery rate lags behind that of both unaffiliateds and Democrats since early 2007.

It will also be important to watch the numbers heading into the summer, and especially the final two reports--September and October--following the Democratic National Convention. Should Recreate '68 and its allies create the disruption and mayhem they are so eager to achieve, it may not matter if unaffiliateds have overtaken Republicans as the largest voting bloc in Colorado. Voter backlash against the Democrats could be considerable statewide, if not nationally, especially if the Democrats add insult to injury by having a heated, brokered convention.

Stay tuned.

Cross posted from Slapstick Politics

Registration Rolls Point Out the Path for GOP

But they also slap us down for the last decades' worth of mis-governing.

From the Saturday Rocky:

The latest voter registration figures from the Secretary of State show that Republicans outnumbered unaffiliated voters in January only by about 12,000 people, 34.8 percent compared to 34.4 percent. In January 2004, the spread was almost five percentage points, 37 percent to 32.2 percent. Since then, unaffiliated registration has steadily increased.

During the same time, the Democratic Party has remained at about 30 percent of the electorate even though the party captured the governor's mansion and the state legislature.

[notice the total for GOP/Unaffil has held steady at 69.2%]

I think the lessons here are fairly self-evident, but I'm going to point them out, anyway.
First of all, as I've written before, "We on theRight may not be able to get our act together to elect people; but the state of Colorado is still, on the issues, a center-right state. The more we do to delineate those issue differences for the voters, the better off we will be." When 69 percent of the electorate is Republican or Unaffiliated, I think that pretty much qualifies you as "center-right." Add to that the long list of referenda and initiatives that the Left has tried for and not succeeded with, and you get a picture of good center-right state.

Unfortunately, the party that should be enjoying the largesse of that profile has proven over the past many years to be either indifferent to everyday people or incompetent in power--I tend to think the latter. I believe that when people want to feel good, they elect Democrats to tell them how to assuage their guilt (whether they actually accomplish anything is a different story); I also believe that when people want to get things done and have competent governance, they tend to elect Republicans.

Those registration numbers don't mean the state is changing nearly as much as they mean the Republicans have blown opportunitites to capitalize on their plurality, and now there's a significant chunk of the electorate who are actively repudiating the Party.

But not the ideas.

And, while this is--or should be--a wake-up call for the GOP, it also points the way back to the promised land.

First: have ideas that mesh with the electorate

Second: be competent, be ethical, and be transparent.

You wouldn't think the first would be very difficult for the Party of Reagan and of Newt Gingrich; and the Colorado GOP is pursuing a very ambitious agenda in the legislature this session; but for a few years there, the GOP was in charge of a system (not of their making) that prevented increasing revenue while mandating increasing expenditures while . . . Sure, the GOP isn't completely responsible for TABOR and Amendment 23; but they happened on their watch, and they couldn't solve the problem. So they get the blame.

But that second one has proven to be a real problem for us. I think the Colorado GOP lost some good will when it tried to ram through redistricting in a stealthy way back in 2000, and that opened the door for the state party to be tarnished by Hurricane Katrina and Iraq and all the other problems of the national GOP.

So, . . .Note to Bob Schaffer's campaign: have ideas that are in sync with the state (not a problem) but ALSO make the case that your ethical standards are unimpeachable (you did keep your term-limits promise) in the face of Lefty smears and that you will get things done (unlike the Democrats who are flailing about haplessly in Congress right now). Don't think too much about the Udall campaign--you need to get this one message through to the electorate or it won't matter how goofy Mark Udall is.

And, preferably, you need to get that message through to the electorate soon, before the smear campaign starts in the Spring.

[cross-posted at BestDestiny]

Udall 49, Schaffer 40 In Latest Poll

Rasmussen's latest poll is out--with Udall up 9 points over Schaffer, 49-40.

Rocky Mountain Right has an updated poll tracker.

Quick key points (I'll have more later)--the Secretary of State is now two months behind on updating voter registration numbers for Colorado. With both candidates at 84% of support from their respective parties, it is clear that the battle for independents will decide the race, and this is where Udall's support has grown dramatically. He now leads 51-30, up from 45-33 last month. Though he has still not gone above the rather significant 50% threshold (with undecideds still lurking out there, and most from the much needed independents), Udall's polling strength is clear. Political tailwinds and heavy liberal attack ad buys early on are definitely playing a role, as is the fact that the Democrats' Presidential nominee is known.

The effects of the Democratic National Convention won't be known until September, the debates are still in limbo, and with just under 5 months to go, polling data is still nothing to bet the farm on--just ask the formerly presumptive Democrat nominee, Hillary Clinton.