Schaffer, Udall In "Dead Heat", Tied 44-44

Looks like Mark Udall is taking a u-turn in terms of support from Colorado voters.

One poll? An outlier.

Two polls in a row? A trend--possibly.

Things aren't looking to good for our favorite Boulder liberal, Mark Udall:

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, and Republican Robert Schaffer are tied 44 - 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 38 percent Udall lead June 26.

Schaffer managed to erase (and Udall managed to lose) a ten-point deficit in under a month.

Some of the spinmeisters at ColoradoPols have been working themselves up into a lather making excuses about poll reliability, the fact its only July, etc., when only a week ago they were trumpeting the CQ politics "leans Dem" prognostication and the double-digit polls as unassailable proof of Udall's electability and Schaffer's weaknesses as a candidate.

Then we had the first debate . . .

The two newest polls showing that Schaffer has closed the gap in overall poll numbers, independents (Udall's lead shrank from 21% to just 4%), and favorability (tied at 54%).

Of course this is still July, but rumors of Schaffer's early demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. If these two new polls represent a trend, then we can expect the race to continue to be neck-and-neck going into November, a true toss up, and one of the most watched races in the country.

And we still have more debates and the DNC to come.

Schaffer-Udall Race Back Within Margin of Error in Latest Poll, 47-43

The latest Rasmussen poll, conducted July 21, puts the Schaffer/Udall race back with the margin of error, where it had been for most of the race until the last six weeks or so. With Udall leading 47-43, and a MOE of +/-4.5%, this is essentially a tie, with just a 3 point difference (49-46) when "leaners" are factored in.

More importantly for Schaffer is the favorability/unfavorability rating, with both candidates at 54% (Schaffer has a 2% lead in the "very favorable" category). Three months of dedicated partisan attacks on Schaffer appear to have given Udall a temporary "bump" in the polls, but haven't appeared to hurt Schaffer's ratings otherwise, and with the poll conducted July 21, could have factored in a full week of reports in the blogosphere and even the MSM that favored Schaffer over Udall in the first debate of the campaign season. Many partisan Dems, including the DSCC, have tried to spin the first debate as at best a Udall victory, and at worst a draw. They claim that one of Schaffer's best salvos of the debate was nothing more than misinformation, and that this hurts Schaffer's credibility.

Unfortunately for Udall, it was his debate rhetoric about "working together" that fell flat on its face.

This new poll comes on the heels of the CQ Politics reassignment of the race to "leans Democratic" from "no clear favorite"--a "lagging indicator" of recent polls or a general reflection of a switch in expected outcome (SvU suspects the former)?  This conflicts with the Cook Political Report out last week that still puts the race as a "toss up."

July polls are July polls. This election year that will be even more the case, especially with the DNC in Udall's back yard. Negative backlash from the convention, due to the events themselves (Hillary party crashing, Obama flub, etc.) or outside in the streets, could damage the Udall move to the center and solidify the "liberal" appellation that he has correctly been tagged with (Boulder liberal, Colorado liberal). He needs a virtually flawless DNC to escape with his independent/unaffiliated support undamaged.

What does Schaffer need? Continued debate success, in both style (clear winner last week) and substance (each side claimed victory). One thing is clear, Schaffer's supporters were clearly more fired up than Udall's, which may be a product of Udall's recent lead (confident supporters feel less afraid of loss). An increase in ad buys and presence in the media (not merely Udall and surrogate attack ads) will increase his visibility, and more highlights from future debates should play well in charging up Republicans seeking down-ticket rally points, since Sen. John McCain won't provide much in the way of coattails. Gas prices stalled at record levels and the expected vote over the Congressional moratorium on offshore drilling in October--the Executive ban having been lifted by President Bush last Monday--could cripple a Udall juggernaut.

Exit questions--with a smidge more than 3 months to go, what do you think of the polls? Will the DNC damage Udall? Can Schaffer reverse the GOP's recent electoral woes?

**Update--a report from a commenter at SquareState doesn't bode well for Udall, with only "lukewarm" support for the Democrat in Boulder

Udall 49, Schaffer 40 In Latest Poll

Rasmussen's latest poll is out--with Udall up 9 points over Schaffer, 49-40.

Rocky Mountain Right has an updated poll tracker.

Quick key points (I'll have more later)--the Secretary of State is now two months behind on updating voter registration numbers for Colorado. With both candidates at 84% of support from their respective parties, it is clear that the battle for independents will decide the race, and this is where Udall's support has grown dramatically. He now leads 51-30, up from 45-33 last month. Though he has still not gone above the rather significant 50% threshold (with undecideds still lurking out there, and most from the much needed independents), Udall's polling strength is clear. Political tailwinds and heavy liberal attack ad buys early on are definitely playing a role, as is the fact that the Democrats' Presidential nominee is known.

The effects of the Democratic National Convention won't be known until September, the debates are still in limbo, and with just under 5 months to go, polling data is still nothing to bet the farm on--just ask the formerly presumptive Democrat nominee, Hillary Clinton.

CO Senate Race Remains A Toss-Up

According to The Cook Political Report's latest Senate analysis (May 22)--defining a toss-up as among "the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning."

Not a poll, but a non-partisan, out-of-state analysis that clearly believes that the number of factors aligning over the next 5 months or so for both candidates and discussed on this blog in great depth make the seat's acquisition or retention an uncertainty for either side--and therefore, greatly competitive.

On a related note, The Hill takes a look at automatic polling (by Rasmussen) versus other analyses--including Cook--and the variability of polling data this far out in the election cycle. The consensus is optimistic for Democrats' chances at picking up additional seats, thus reflecting the GOP's success in 2002 and the subsequent vulnerability of the party's candidates this year.

Udall 47, Schaffer 41 In Latest Poll

PolitickerCO has the rundown of the latest Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters conducted May 19:

A new Rasmussen Reports poll of the Colorado U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Mark Udall with a 6-point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer -- the first time a Rasmussen poll has shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error.

The poll of 500 likely Colorado voters, taken on May 19, showed Udall leading Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was +/- 4.5 percentage points.

In April, Udall had a statistically insignificant 3-point lead; March's poll showed Schaffer up by a single percentage point.

In the past two months, Schaffer's overall ratings have dropped: his overall favorable rating in May of 44 percent is down 3 percentage points since April and 9 percentage points since March. His overall unfavorable rating, meanwhile, has increased 7 percentage points - from 32 percent in March to 39 percent in May.

Udall's overall favorable rating for May was 50 percent -- up two percentage points from April, but down two points from his March favorable rating. The Democrat had a May unfavorable rating of 35 percent, compared to 37 percent in April and 34 percent in March.

The first credible outside-the-margin separation favors Udall, though the favorability/unfavorability of each is staying fairly close:

With the exception of the "very favorable" category where Udall holds a fairly large lead, the candidates are almost identical, and both still have double-digit responses for "not sure."

When asked if the Schaffer/Abramoff alleged scandal had given the voter cause for concern, here were the results:

"How concerned are you about the alleged relationship between Bob Schaffer and Jack Abramoff?"

19% Very concerned

18% Somewhat concerned

24% Not very concerned

17% Not at all concerned

23% Not sure

There is certainly traction for the story, but it is difficult to discern whether that concern comes from those voters likely or undecided to vote for Schaffer in the first place. A story with resonance only among Udall's supporters won't do much more than galvanize his base, and not result in vote switching or undervoting behavior. Bet on the Udall camp and his surrogates to push this story again and again this summer and fall.

Takeaways--it is clear that Udall has broken the margin of error stalemate, which would be assumed given the widespread consensus that this is a toss-up seat leaning in Udall's favor in the media and the punditry. Anything less would be quite a disappointment for the Dems.

But it is still May and the Democrats' battle over their Presidential nominee has still not been concluded. Udall has yet to declare how he would vote as a superdelegate, nor given any indication as to what terms he would debate Schaffer this summer. And finally, the Democratic National Convention in Denver could prove to be a showcase or a debacle for Udall and the Dems, helping or hurting the candidate. With all this to consider, it is still a long road to November for Udall.

SvU's updated tracking poll and trendlines (click to enlarge):

Udall 45, Schaffer 42 In Latest Rasmussen Poll

Yet another poll within the margin of error, demonstrating that this continues to be a close race:

For the second straight month, Democrat Mark Udall holds a three-point edge over Republican Bob Schaffer in the race to become Colorado’s next United States Senator. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado found Udall attracting 45% of the vote while Schaffer earns 42%. A month ago, Udall was up 46% to 43%. Two months ago, it was Schaffer with a statistically insignificant one point lead.

This is the fourth straight Rasmussen Reports election poll to find the two candidates within three points of each other.

Pretty much putting the nail in the coffin of the outlier McLaughlin poll. This poll was conducted on April 16, after the Post's anti-Schaffer hit job appeared. No bump in the polls is evident, at least according to Rasmussen.

More from the poll, further indicating the parity of the candidates:

Both men have seen their popularity slide a bit over the past month. Udall is now viewed favorably by 48%, down four percentage points from 52% a month ago. Schaffer is now viewed favorably by 47%, down six from a month ago.

Those figures include 20% with a Very Favorable opinion of Udall and 14% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democrat. Schaffer earns Very Favorable reviews from 12% and Very Unfavorable ratings from 15%.

Udall leads by eight points among women but trails by three among women [sic]. Schaffer attracts 80% of Republicans while Udall is supported by 84% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the candidates are even.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Colorado voters say the economy is the most important voting issue of Election 2008. Twenty percent (20%) say it’s the War on Terror while 12% name immigration.

Voters who see the economy as the top issue are evenly divided between Udall and Schaffer. Those who see Iraq as the highest priority strongly prefer Udall. Schaffer dominates among those who see immigration as most important.

With unaffiliateds evenly split and given the GOP's healthy registered voter advantage over Democrats, Schaffer holds the edge. Unaffiliateds haven't broken for either candidate yet, but Udall needs to hold significant advantage there in order to overcome the disadvantage from pure party support.

How close are Schaffer and Udall? Take a look at their respective favorability ratings:


Schaffer has a combined 47% positive rating, Udall comes in at 48%. Unfavorable ratings for Schaffer and Udall sit at 37% each. Can't get any closer than that.

Schaffer v Udall's updated poll tracker (click to enlarge):


And poll tracker trendlines (click to enlarge):


**Update: Pollster.com has also updated its poll tracker, and has tossed out the outlier McLaughlin poll as well.

Schaffer, Udall Tied In Latest Poll At 45% All; McCain Beats Clinton 52-40%, And Obama 51-39%

Proving that the McLaughlin poll was a true outlier, the most recent poll conducted from March 31-April 7 by TargetPoint Consulting for New Leadership USA reveals a race that is truly up-in-the-air, tied at 45% with a MOE of +/- 4% (for the opposition--yes, this poll came before the Denver Post's alleged "scandal"):

New Leadership USA recently commissioned a statewide poll that shows a dead heat in the U.S. Senate race between Former Congressman Bob Schaffer and Congressman Mark Udall.

“This is going to be a highly competitive race between two candidates with real ideological differences,” stated New Leadership USA Communications Director, Kathy Redmond. “According to the poll, Colorado voters have serious concerns about higher taxes and a slowing economy, rejecting candidates perceived to be driving an agenda at the expense of economic growth.”

The recent poll, conducted by TargetPoint Consulting, shows that if they had to choose today, Coloradans would be divided evenly at 45% each for Schaffer and Udall.
. . .
New Leadership USA is an unincorporated nonprofit association devoted to educating citizens and communities about important issues involving education, economic growth, and jobs.
. . .
TargetPoint Consulting
n=604 Likely General Election Voters (moe +/- 4%)
March 31 – April 7, 2008

United States Senate Ballot
As you may know, this November, Coloradans will elect a new person to represent the state in the US Senate. Thinking about this race…if you had to choose today, would you vote for Republican candidate, Bob Schaffer or the Democrat Candidate Mark Udall?

Bob Schaffer 45%
Mark Udall 45
DK/Ref/Other 10

Updating the SvU tracking polls we have the current poll situation (click to enlarge):


and the polls with trendlines (click to enlarge):


If you are looking for a refutation of the non-scandal scandal from a perspective other than here at SvU, "GOPpundit" over at ColoradoPols does an admirable job.

The previous polls showing a tight race will provide a benchmark for any poll that appears both in the near future and over time. It remains to be seen how much the story will affect the polls, and if the effect is temporary or longer-lasting.

The New Leadership USA poll also waded into the Presidential race, and addressed both of the potential matchup scenarios--with John McCain winning against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Colorado:

United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Clinton)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Hillary Clinton, would you vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 52%
Hillary Clinton 40
DK/Ref/Other 8

United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Obama)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, would you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 51%
Barack Obama 39
DK/Ref/Other 10

Exit question: with the opposition's accusations of spin aside, will the Post's "April surprise" have the legs to stick around until November or will it prove to be a tempest in a teapot of accusations built on circumstantial evidence and guilt by tenuous extrapolation, forgotten by summer?

More On The "Latest" Schaffer-Udall Poll

The "latest" poll was tackled by Ben earlier this morning, but although it was released on March 28, the survey itself was conducted between March 6-9, nearly a month ago, and came before the most recent Rasmussen tracking poll that had Mark Udall up 46-43, within the margin of error, just like every other poll to this point:

As Ben points out, there is too little information here, hidden behind a fee wall--just like many of the other polls.

Here is the methodology blurb:

Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted statewide surveys among general election voters in Colorado (n=400), Maine (n=400) and Minnesota (n=500) between March 6th and 9th, 2008. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in statewide general elections. The accuracy of the samples of 400 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. The accuracy of the sample of 500 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval.

While their stated methodology may be sound, it is hard to put much credence into a poll with 25% undecideds, and no breakdown on which way those undecideds lean.

Rocky Mountain Right has a good tracking poll (blogroll-worthy, if you have not yet checked them out), but places this poll after the last Rasmussen poll, instead of before it, in correct chronology (not their fault, as the McLaughlin poll was released after the Rasmussen poll).

Our SvU tracking polls put the McLaughlin poll in its proper context (click to enlarge):


With trendlines:


Only the McLaughlin poll shows anything but a tight race, consistently within the margin of error.

But the national media and Beltway politicos have always expected this to be a Udall pickup for the Dems, and have dismissed the other polls showing a toss-up in favor of one outlier:

Given his lackluster performance in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, many expected that former Rep. Bob Schaffer's bid to replace retiring Senator Wayne Allard would fall similarly flat. Schaffer is assumed to be too far right for the increasingly-Democratic Colorado, and his opponent, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, has a great name and a fat bank account.

But in poll after poll, Schaffer has trailed Udall by exceedingly small margins, virtually always within the margin of error. In December, Schaffer trailed by two points. In October, the gap was just one point. Was labeling Udall as a Boulder liberal finding success? Is Colorado still a red state? Or is Schaffer manager Dick Wadhams, a former top aide to Virginia Senator George Allen, the next Karl Rove?
. . .
Before Democrats get too thrilled and claim they are guaranteed to pick up the seat, they might want to wait for a few more surveys to come out. Schaffer has a talented political team, led by Wadhams, and Udall remains well under 50%. But a twelve-point lead is what most Beltway politicos expected to see, and the McLaughlin survey proves that Schaffer, who has trailed in every poll Politics Nation has seen on the race, has a ways to go to climb out of a hole.

It is surprising to see the RealClearPolitics blogger parrot the typical MSM-Beltway consensus, when every other poll has shown a maddeningly (for Dems) tight race. The Cook Political Report's most recent analysis (March 20) still has this race as a competitive toss-up, with either party having a good chance of winning.

And as for polls in general--the polls said Hillary Clinton would be the Democrat's nominee and that John McCain was on death's door (politically), just a few months ago.

So much for polls. There will be plenty more over the next seven months, and as the saying goes, anything can happen.

Rocky Mountain Right Poll Tracker

The most impressive new addition to the Colorado blogosphere is Rocky Mountain Right (RMR). Here we frequently write up and analyze poll results in the U.S. Senate race between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall. Well, RMR has created a poll tracker graphic feature to show trends in public opinion. This tool should come in handy as election season heats up, as we seek to get a sense whether this very tight race starts to move in one direction or the other.

RMR has gathered some well-deserved attention and quite a few regular visitors in its first month on the Net. It just goes to show that finding a creative niche, combined with consistent posting and an attractive site design can be a simple formula for blogging success.