According to The Cook Political Report's latest Senate analysis (May 22)--defining a toss-up as among "the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning."
Not a poll, but a non-partisan, out-of-state analysis that clearly believes that the number of factors aligning over the next 5 months or so for both candidates and discussed on this blog in great depth make the seat's acquisition or retention an uncertainty for either side--and therefore, greatly competitive.
On a related note, The Hill takes a look at automatic polling (by Rasmussen) versus other analyses--including Cook--and the variability of polling data this far out in the election cycle. The consensus is optimistic for Democrats' chances at picking up additional seats, thus reflecting the GOP's success in 2002 and the subsequent vulnerability of the party's candidates this year.
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