Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Schaffer, Udall Tied In Latest Poll At 45% All; McCain Beats Clinton 52-40%, And Obama 51-39%

Proving that the McLaughlin poll was a true outlier, the most recent poll conducted from March 31-April 7 by TargetPoint Consulting for New Leadership USA reveals a race that is truly up-in-the-air, tied at 45% with a MOE of +/- 4% (for the opposition--yes, this poll came before the Denver Post's alleged "scandal"):
New Leadership USA recently commissioned a statewide poll that shows a dead heat in the U.S. Senate race between Former Congressman Bob Schaffer and Congressman Mark Udall.

“This is going to be a highly competitive race between two candidates with real ideological differences,” stated New Leadership USA Communications Director, Kathy Redmond. “According to the poll, Colorado voters have serious concerns about higher taxes and a slowing economy, rejecting candidates perceived to be driving an agenda at the expense of economic growth.”

The recent poll, conducted by TargetPoint Consulting, shows that if they had to choose today, Coloradans would be divided evenly at 45% each for Schaffer and Udall.
. . .
New Leadership USA is an unincorporated nonprofit association devoted to educating citizens and communities about important issues involving education, economic growth, and jobs.
. . .
TargetPoint Consulting
n=604 Likely General Election Voters (moe +/- 4%)
March 31 – April 7, 2008

United States Senate Ballot
As you may know, this November, Coloradans will elect a new person to represent the state in the US Senate. Thinking about this race…if you had to choose today, would you vote for Republican candidate, Bob Schaffer or the Democrat Candidate Mark Udall?

Bob Schaffer 45%
Mark Udall 45
DK/Ref/Other 10
Updating the SvU tracking polls we have the current poll situation (click to enlarge):

and the polls with trendlines (click to enlarge):

If you are looking for a refutation of the non-scandal scandal from a perspective other than here at SvU, "GOPpundit" over at ColoradoPols does an admirable job.

The previous polls showing a tight race will provide a benchmark for any poll that appears both in the near future and over time. It remains to be seen how much the story will affect the polls, and if the effect is temporary or longer-lasting.

The New Leadership USA poll also waded into the Presidential race, and addressed both of the potential matchup scenarios--with John McCain winning against Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Colorado:
United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Clinton)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Hillary Clinton, would you vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 52%
Hillary Clinton 40
DK/Ref/Other 8

United States Presidential Ballot (McCain vs. Obama)
If the election for President was being held today and you could choose between Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, would you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama? (Half Sample n=302)

John McCain 51%
Barack Obama 39
DK/Ref/Other 10
Exit question: with the opposition's accusations of spin aside, will the Post's "April surprise" have the legs to stick around until November or will it prove to be a tempest in a teapot of accusations built on circumstantial evidence and guilt by tenuous extrapolation, forgotten by summer?

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