Monday, April 21, 2008

Udall 45, Schaffer 42 In Latest Rasmussen Poll

Yet another poll within the margin of error, demonstrating that this continues to be a close race:
For the second straight month, Democrat Mark Udall holds a three-point edge over Republican Bob Schaffer in the race to become Colorado’s next United States Senator. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado found Udall attracting 45% of the vote while Schaffer earns 42%. A month ago, Udall was up 46% to 43%. Two months ago, it was Schaffer with a statistically insignificant one point lead.

This is the fourth straight Rasmussen Reports election poll to find the two candidates within three points of each other.
Pretty much putting the nail in the coffin of the outlier McLaughlin poll. This poll was conducted on April 16, after the Post's anti-Schaffer hit job appeared. No bump in the polls is evident, at least according to Rasmussen.

More from the poll, further indicating the parity of the candidates:
Both men have seen their popularity slide a bit over the past month. Udall is now viewed favorably by 48%, down four percentage points from 52% a month ago. Schaffer is now viewed favorably by 47%, down six from a month ago.

Those figures include 20% with a Very Favorable opinion of Udall and 14% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democrat. Schaffer earns Very Favorable reviews from 12% and Very Unfavorable ratings from 15%.

Udall leads by eight points among women but trails by three among women [sic]. Schaffer attracts 80% of Republicans while Udall is supported by 84% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the candidates are even.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Colorado voters say the economy is the most important voting issue of Election 2008. Twenty percent (20%) say it’s the War on Terror while 12% name immigration.

Voters who see the economy as the top issue are evenly divided between Udall and Schaffer. Those who see Iraq as the highest priority strongly prefer Udall. Schaffer dominates among those who see immigration as most important.
With unaffiliateds evenly split and given the GOP's healthy registered voter advantage over Democrats, Schaffer holds the edge. Unaffiliateds haven't broken for either candidate yet, but Udall needs to hold significant advantage there in order to overcome the disadvantage from pure party support.

How close are Schaffer and Udall? Take a look at their respective favorability ratings:

Schaffer has a combined 47% positive rating, Udall comes in at 48%. Unfavorable ratings for Schaffer and Udall sit at 37% each. Can't get any closer than that.

Schaffer v Udall's updated poll tracker (click to enlarge):

And poll tracker trendlines (click to enlarge):

**Update: has also updated its poll tracker, and has tossed out the outlier McLaughlin poll as well.

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