Zogby: Another "Outlier" Showing a Dead Heat Between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall

Zogby releases today a poll conducted in June - it might as well be ancient history. Yes, Zogby isn't as reliable as - say, Rasmussen - or Quinnipiac, but it's just another in the collection of "outlier" polls that show Colorado's U.S. Senate race to be essentially tied. Writes Zogby:

Democrat Mark Udall will need a larger share of the Hispanic vote to take this seat currently held by Republican Wayne Allard. Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer are even at 40%. One-half of Hispanics are undecided.

Interesting that the Zogby poll found the contest so close even before Bob Schaffer wiped the floor with Mark Udall in the first debate.

Fasten your seat belts. It looks like a bumpy ride - especially for Mark Udall.

Yesterday, July 30: A Day the Mark Udall Campaign May Look Back On in Regret

213-212. Less than 48 hours after he mad a promise to vote to keep Congress busy to deal with the nation's domestic energy problems, Mark Udall showed up a few minutes too late to cast an important vote. And that favorable interpretation requires taking him at his word.

You know, he was too busy raising funds for his Senate campaign to show up and cast important votes. It doesn't say much about how well Mark Udall would represent Colorado as a U.S. Senator.

Reports the Denver Post:

[Udall spokeswoman Taylor] West said that her boss would send a letter to Pelosi today objecting to the fact that the vote wasn't delayed long enough for him to make it from the Washington airport to the Capitol.

First, when did Taylor West - one of two people who believed Mark Udall actually won the first debate - resume official PR duties for the Udall campaign?

Second, Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have saved Mark Udall from choosing between breaking a public promise and voting against a long history of energy obstruction likely will be too transparent to work. But she didn't do Udall any favor. Pelosi is more concerned about saving many of her House Democrats seeking re-election from having to cast a vote on the issue than securing Colorado's U.S. Senate seat for her party. Translation? Nancy Pelosi threw Mark Udall under the bus.

Of course, this all assumes we give Mark Udall all the benefit of the doubt. After all, based on his record, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Udall has any serious intention to go against his entire Congressional career by seeking to improve America's domestic energy supply. Yes - the only place Mark Udall wants to drill is your wallet.

Fourteen weeks from now, on Election Night, the events of yesterday well may be looked back upon as a critical and decisive moment in the U.S. Senate race. And that would be bad news for Mark Udall.

U-Turn Udall Reneges On Monday's Debate Pledge To Vote Against Adjourning And Push For New Energy Bill

**Update--Udall claims he was "on his way" to the vote and couldn't get the vote delayed, but was able to vote on another resolution just 10 minutes later:

Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall missed a critical vote today that might have kept Congress from going into summer recess until it passed an energy bill, breaking a vow he made in a recent debate.

Udall spokeswoman Taylor West said the Boulder County lawmaker was on his way back to Washington at the time and that the vote was called with only 10 minutes' notice. Udall asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to delay the vote without success, and the resolution passed by one vote, 213-212.

With gas prices the No. 1 financial worry of voters, promising to try to keep lawmakers in session until they took action was a bold stroke, but missing that vote could be an equally costly political mistake by the five-term congressman.

Whoops! When even the MSM points out the failure . . .

There was an excuse a reason for the missed vote, of course:

Udall's staff said the Democrat stayed in Colorado to attend several campaign-related events, including a meeting with business leaders and a fundraising event — which Udall's Republican opponent quickly jumped on.

"While Coloradans are paying $4 a gallon for gasoline, I guess it wasn't important enough for (Udall) to show up for work this week," said Dick Wadhams, the campaign manager for Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer. "He made a commitment Monday, he didn't even show up for work Tuesday and then he missed the vote today."

West said that her boss would send a letter to Pelosi today objecting to the fact that the vote wasn't delayed long enough for him to make it from the Washington airport to the Capitol.

Udall missed the 1:04 pm vote on adjournment, but made the next vote just 10 minutes later.

Missing a vote you make a pledge on in debate just two days earlier should be a top priority. We expect Udall to do the job he has already been elected to do. If a campaign can't balance an actual work schedule with fundraising and campaigning needs, then Udall needs a better day planner or to reorganize his priorities.

By the time the debate yet-to-be-aired segment appears Sunday, it will already be clear--Udall can't keep his promises.

That's some U-turn.

The Rocky:

Rep. Mark Udall learned Wednesday there are some political promises he shouldn't make.

Like pledging to oppose sending Congress on its summer break — and then missing the vote altogether.

Wednesday, the House voted 213-212 to adjourn this week.

The vote came two days after Udall vowed, in a televised debate, to oppose recessing unless the House first took up a crucial energy bill.
. . .
But Dick Wadhams, campaign manager for Republican Senate nominee Bob Schaffer, said Udall not only broke a promise, but that his non-vote was worse than had he voted in favor of the adjournment resolution.

"It's one thing to vote wrong, but to not even show up for the vote? Even by 'U-turn Udall''s standards, that's extraordinary," Wadhams said.

Udall's campaign tries to explain the missed vote, but it doesn't seem to add up--if Udall asked for a delay, and most likely explained why it was needed (even symbolically), then why would the Democrats throw him under the bus and not hold off for a few minutes as he "raced up the stairs"?

Udall, who spent Tuesday campaigning in Colorado, had just landed in Washington Wednesday afternoon when he got word that the adjournment vote was imminent.

He phoned House leaders, asking them to delay the vote, but they didn't.

Udall was racing up the Capitol steps when voting closed. He was one of 10 members absent for the tally.

Tara Trujillo, press secretary for Udall's Senate campaign, said that the Eldorado Springs Democrat was "extremely upset" he was not allowed to cast a ballot.

Perhaps the Dem House leaders failed to grasp the significance of Udall's vote?

Hmmm.

---

Well, that didn't take long--Mark Udall took less than two days to break a recorded promise made during Monday's Fox 31 debate to push for an energy solution and against adjournment for Congress:

Boulder Liberal Congressman Mark Udall reneged on a pledge to vote against an adjournment resolution until Congress passed an energy bill when he failed to show up for the vote today in the U.S. House of Representatives. Udall’s vote could have killed the adjournment resolution since it passed by only one vote, 213-212.

“Boulder Liberal Mark Udall not only did not fulfill his pledge to vote against adjourning for the summer until an energy bill passed, he didn’t even bother to show up for the vote,” said Schaffer for Senate campaign manager Dick Wadhams. “Boulder Liberal Udall’s u-turns are pretty common but this is extraordinarily low even by his standards.”

During a debate on Monday, July 28 at KDVR-TV Fox 31, Bob Schaffer challenged Udall to vote against adjourning for the summer recess until an energy bill was passed. Udall agreed to the challenge.

His failure to keep his promise aside, Udall also failed to show leadership and could have cast an obviously critical vote to keep Congress on task and in the business of finding energy solutions including domestic oil exploration rather than skipping out on holiday.

Ben was right--the only place Udall wants to drill is your wallet. And by failing to make any attempt to find any solutions now, Udall continues to let Colorado voters foot the bill.

You can see part of Schaffer's challenge to Udall in a preview clip at myfoxcolorado (first video on the right). Udall ultimately concedes to Schaffer's challenge and says "yes" to voting against adjournment.

Mark Udall Pledges to Work Toward Energy Solutions Before Congressional Recess

At yesterday's pre-recorded debate between Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall, the Boulder liberal Democrat candidate made a promise:

Schaffer, meanwhile, accused congressional Democrats of being more concerned with voting to recess at the end of the week than passing an energy plan. Agreeing to Schaffer's challenge, Udall said he would not vote for a recess until an energy bill comes up.

At The Colorado Index, Civil Sense highlights the importance of Mark Udall's promise and why it will be difficult for him to keep:

It is unlikely that Nancy Pelosi and the Delay, Don’t Drill, Do Nothing Democrats would allow debate on an energy bill before summer recess as this would force vulnerable Democrat House members to vote against their leadership. Time will tell whether or not Mark Udall will have to follow through or renege on his promise to vote against summer recess.

In addition to sitting on their collective hands on expanding domestic energy supply, Mark Udall and the Democratic Congress have failed to pass a single appropriations bill to fund the federal government, to fill numerous judicial vacancies, and to investigate massive corruption uncovered among trial lawyers.

Will Mark Udall keep his promise? Or will he come back to Colorado with an "aw shucks, I tried" that befits his dedication to radical environments over domestic energy solutions?

The Bob Schaffer-Mark Udall debate airs locally in Colorado on 10 PM Sunday on Fox 31.

The Only Place Mark Udall Wants to Drill Is Your Wallet

This is a fabulous idea: How about bumper stickers that read "Your Wallet: The Only Place Udall Wants to Drill"? I'd put one on my car.

TV Ad: "You Don't Know Udall"

Via Rocky Mountain Right, the latest ad from Coloradans for Economic Growth that says "You Don't Know Udall":

It's the Mark Udall that Mark Udall doesn't want Colorado's independent voters to know about.

Schaffer Udall Fox 31 Debate--Photos

Behind the scenes at the Fox 31 debate--"Colorado 2031 to air next Sunday, 10pm, on Fox 31 after the news.


The set, bare just a few minutes earlier, has been prepared and awaits the candidates Bob Schaffer and Mark Udall, and the host Ron Zappolo.


Zappolo prepares his mic.


Host Zappolo encourages an "anything goes" atmosphere and what would become a "guided conversation" rather than a traditional debate.


Schaffer argues a point during the first segment, which of course focused on energy--what mattered most to Colorado voters.


What we have here is a not only a closeup of the Fox 31 camera, but an example of Udall's most frequently used gesture--the double "click" position.


Schaffer explains his positions on energy as Zappolo looks on.


Udall responds--there's those hands again.


Waiting his turn.


Likewise.


Yep. The hands. Again.


A view from the inside.


The host was able to see what the audience will see with the use of this monitor.


From the other angle.


A wide shot (the hands!)


A friendly exchange.


Udall's closing remarks.


Bob's closing remarks.


Schaffer--gotta bring down the energy prices.


Conclusion.


A spirited and frenzied dialogue, and handshakes all around.


Media swarms Schaffer (foreground), while Udall (background, next to ladders and obscured by the reporter in the white shirt) answers a few questions after abruptly exiting the studio following the debate.


Udall gets his opportunity to chat with the reporters.

Schaffer Udall Fox 31 Pre-Debate Rally--Photos And Video

Photos/video of the rally outside--




Yep, it's evil.


Signs of the times--commuters along Speer and Lincoln were treated to a lot of signs, and responded with honking.


Anti-Udall protestors--from his left--brought out the impeachment signs and asked for Udall to bring President Bush and Vice President Cheney on charges.


The battle is joined--Boulder liberals welcome!


These guys have appeared at both of the debates--"Where is Mark Udall on EFCA?"


Showin' liberals a little love.


Like the "Veterans for Udall," it wasn't quite clear if those holding signs were actually veterans or firefighters.


There was a large youth contingent among Schaffer's supporters.


The wall of Udall supporters make their case--"M A R K, vote for Udall all the way!"


But the high cost of energy was on the minds of Schaffer's supporters--"drill here, drill now!"


Big Time Bob Schaffer fans brave the late July heat--with fan-favorite "U-Turn Udall" signs highlighting the Democrat's record.


Bob Schaffer greets supporters outside the Fox 31 Studio as Dick Wadhams looks on.


Schaffer chats with supporters before heading inside.

Washington Times: Big Oil Smear Backfiring on Big Blue Lie Machine

Reading an article like this one from today's Washington Times must make the folks at ProgressNow feel deservedly silly and their favored candidate Mark Udall just plain hopping mad:

Bob Schaffer's opponents have spent the past two months tarring him as "Big Oil Bob," an advocate of oil drilling and an energy-industry insider. Maybe he should thank them.

Two polls show Mr. Schaffer, the Colorado Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, has erased a double-digit deficit and pulled within a nose of Democratic foe Mark Udall.

The reason, according to one poll, lies in fuel prices. Since gas hit $4 a gallon here, a majority of Colorado voters have come out in favor of offshore oil drilling and exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, said a Quinnipiac Poll released last week.

At the same time, Mr. Schaffer went from trailing Mr. Udall by 10 percentage points in June - 49 percent to 39 percent - to a 44 percent to 44 percent tie in July. The June survey of 1,351 likely Colorado voters had an error margin of 2.7 percentage points; the July poll of 1,425 likely voters had a 2.6-point margin.

ProgressNow of course has reason to feel silly, having spent so much time and money on a full-fledged Internet campaign to tar the candidate they hate as "Big Oil Bob." The absurdity of their facile ad campaign had been pointed out as early as April.

And why might Mark Udall be angry? Besides the plummeting poll numbers? Perhaps his wife Maggie Fox's intimate connection with the 527 group League of Conservation Voters so singularly obsessed with tarring Bob Schaffer?

Politics is a fickle game. At some point, enough of the public comes to see through the deception - though the ill winds may yet again work against common sense and decency for a time. But for now, it's sure funny to see the tar blow back on the Big Blue Lie Machine.

Second Senate Race Debate Hosted By Fox 31

Monday July 28, noon, at the Fox 31 Studio, 100 E. Speer Blvd.

Bob Schaffer will address the rally before the debate, which will be filmed in a closed set and aired later this week.

I'll have pictures and video tomorrow afternoon.

Will the lack of an audience actually help Mark Udall? It'll be interesting to see which questions will dominate this debate, but I'm sure energy and the Iraq War will continue to play a major part in driving the conversation. Recent polls (a Dem pollster's 9-point Udall lead notwithstanding) have indicated a much tighter race, within the margin of error, than polls conducted earlier this summer.

Another apparent Schaffer victory in tomorrow's debate might help solidify not only his credentials and bolster his image, but also open even more questions for a somewhat disappointing Udall campaign showing of late.

Schaffer, Udall In "Dead Heat", Tied 44-44

Looks like Mark Udall is taking a u-turn in terms of support from Colorado voters.

One poll? An outlier.

Two polls in a row? A trend--possibly.

Things aren't looking to good for our favorite Boulder liberal, Mark Udall:

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, and Republican Robert Schaffer are tied 44 - 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 38 percent Udall lead June 26.

Schaffer managed to erase (and Udall managed to lose) a ten-point deficit in under a month.

Some of the spinmeisters at ColoradoPols have been working themselves up into a lather making excuses about poll reliability, the fact its only July, etc., when only a week ago they were trumpeting the CQ politics "leans Dem" prognostication and the double-digit polls as unassailable proof of Udall's electability and Schaffer's weaknesses as a candidate.

Then we had the first debate . . .

The two newest polls showing that Schaffer has closed the gap in overall poll numbers, independents (Udall's lead shrank from 21% to just 4%), and favorability (tied at 54%).

Of course this is still July, but rumors of Schaffer's early demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. If these two new polls represent a trend, then we can expect the race to continue to be neck-and-neck going into November, a true toss up, and one of the most watched races in the country.

And we still have more debates and the DNC to come.

Happy Birthday, Bob Schaffer!

A temporary respite from the give-and-take of the campaign... Today is Bob Schaffer's 46th birthday - Happy Birthday, Bob! The recent trend in campaign polling must be considered a nice present.

At the same time, we regret our oversight for not acknowledging Mark Udall's 58th birthday last week. Wonder how many cards he got from Hollywood liberals to go along with the campaign cash?

Democrat Staffer Right on Bob Schaffer's Tail to Stalk Him at Greeley Parade

Brought to you by the people who recently gave us some of the most laughable, absurd propaganda of the political season: It seems a Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) staffer had to hang really close to Bob Schaffer to stalk him with a camera at the Greeley 4th of July Parade.

I mean, that's really close. Maybe someone should buy the DSCC a zoom lens?

Then again, perhaps Mark Udall had asked for close-up footage of his opponent to study in preparation for the first campaign debate. If so, it didn't work too well. No wonder the DSCC felt impelled to try to spin the debate out of all reality into a Udall victory.

Schaffer-Udall Race Back Within Margin of Error in Latest Poll, 47-43

The latest Rasmussen poll, conducted July 21, puts the Schaffer/Udall race back with the margin of error, where it had been for most of the race until the last six weeks or so. With Udall leading 47-43, and a MOE of +/-4.5%, this is essentially a tie, with just a 3 point difference (49-46) when "leaners" are factored in.

More importantly for Schaffer is the favorability/unfavorability rating, with both candidates at 54% (Schaffer has a 2% lead in the "very favorable" category). Three months of dedicated partisan attacks on Schaffer appear to have given Udall a temporary "bump" in the polls, but haven't appeared to hurt Schaffer's ratings otherwise, and with the poll conducted July 21, could have factored in a full week of reports in the blogosphere and even the MSM that favored Schaffer over Udall in the first debate of the campaign season. Many partisan Dems, including the DSCC, have tried to spin the first debate as at best a Udall victory, and at worst a draw. They claim that one of Schaffer's best salvos of the debate was nothing more than misinformation, and that this hurts Schaffer's credibility.

Unfortunately for Udall, it was his debate rhetoric about "working together" that fell flat on its face.

This new poll comes on the heels of the CQ Politics reassignment of the race to "leans Democratic" from "no clear favorite"--a "lagging indicator" of recent polls or a general reflection of a switch in expected outcome (SvU suspects the former)?  This conflicts with the Cook Political Report out last week that still puts the race as a "toss up."

July polls are July polls. This election year that will be even more the case, especially with the DNC in Udall's back yard. Negative backlash from the convention, due to the events themselves (Hillary party crashing, Obama flub, etc.) or outside in the streets, could damage the Udall move to the center and solidify the "liberal" appellation that he has correctly been tagged with (Boulder liberal, Colorado liberal). He needs a virtually flawless DNC to escape with his independent/unaffiliated support undamaged.

What does Schaffer need? Continued debate success, in both style (clear winner last week) and substance (each side claimed victory). One thing is clear, Schaffer's supporters were clearly more fired up than Udall's, which may be a product of Udall's recent lead (confident supporters feel less afraid of loss). An increase in ad buys and presence in the media (not merely Udall and surrogate attack ads) will increase his visibility, and more highlights from future debates should play well in charging up Republicans seeking down-ticket rally points, since Sen. John McCain won't provide much in the way of coattails. Gas prices stalled at record levels and the expected vote over the Congressional moratorium on offshore drilling in October--the Executive ban having been lifted by President Bush last Monday--could cripple a Udall juggernaut.

Exit questions--with a smidge more than 3 months to go, what do you think of the polls? Will the DNC damage Udall? Can Schaffer reverse the GOP's recent electoral woes?

**Update--a report from a commenter at SquareState doesn't bode well for Udall, with only "lukewarm" support for the Democrat in Boulder

Flashback: Mark Udall's War Flip-Flop Puts Him Temporarily Out of Left's Favor

Our hats are off to Rocky Mountain Right (RMR) for repeatedly hitting the nail on the head about Mark Udall. The latest coup d'etat is a posted video showing Udall's highly strained relationship with the anti-war Left that had invested so much hope in their Boulder liberal candidate - especially after he co-sponsored the Department of Peace - the result of being hurt by Udall's violent flip-flopping.

Writes RMR:

Mark Udall's supporters are complaining that Bob Schaffer's "checkmate" moment over the Iraq War at the Senate debate was an unfair attack and are trying to make out like Udall is a darling of the anti-war movement. This YouTube video uploaded by anti-war activists last year shows that they don't seem to like him all that much and suggests that this may be a looming problem for Udall with the Democratic base.

Go and check out the video, watch Mark Udall dodge question after question (good thing he didn't have any of his constituents put in jail), and tell a Lefty friend to go with their conscience and give a second look at Bob Kinsey for U.S. Senate.

DSCC Tries the Ridiculous "Big Lie" to Spin Mark Udall out of His Debate Disaster

Here's a new dispatch from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). Try to read it out loud without laughing - I still can't do it:

In the first debate between Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall and far-right Republican Bob Schaffer, Udall came away the clear winner. Udall presented a clear plan for moving the country forward after years of Republican mismanagement of the economy, national security, and our energy policy.

Sorry, I should have warned you not to read that with food or drink in your mouth. Hope it didn't cause any unfortunate damage to your computer.

Anyone who actually watched last Monday's debate recognizes this as some of the most outrageous and absurd propaganda of the season. "Udall came away the clear winner"? Yes, if by winning the debate you mean "not tripping and falling on your face in front of hundreds of people." And Mark Udall "presented a clear plan"? What clear plan was that ... "working together"?

Hey, these guys at the DSCC ... it's their job to put a little spin on the campaigns. But sometimes they have to make themselves look like royal fools to do it - this is one of those instances for the DSCC. Hope they're getting paid well to publish this unbelievable drivel.

Add Possible Conflict of Interest to Mark Udall's List of Energy-Related Problems

The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel reports:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mark Udall’s plans to encourage the use of renewable energy could end up benefiting several of the congressman’s investments, according to a review of his recent financial disclosure forms.

Udall’s May 22 disclosure to the Senate Ethics Committee reveals he has at least $31,000 invested in mutual funds and IRAs backed by clean-energy investments.

These investments could benefit from policies Udall has announced his support for both on the campaign trail and during his time in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The top holdings for Powershares WilderHill Clean Energy, in which Udall has invested from $16,000 to $45,000, include First Solar Inc., an Arizona-based firm developing solar-energy technology.

Udall has purchased $15,000 to $50,000 worth of shares in the Winsloe Green Growth mutual fund, which also has invested in the solar-technology firm.

Udall purchased shares in both investments Nov. 13, according to his financial disclosure.

Mark Udall's relations in the energy world have already evidenced public hypocrisy and possible coordinated smear attacks against his opponent. What abouta little conflict of interest to top it all off?

If this story were about Bob Schaffer, it would be a blazing headline in the Denver papers. Will the Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News dig deeper into Mark Udall's energy-based hypocrisy and apparently conflicted interests?

Even Mark Udall's Weak Debate Rhetoric on "Working Together" is Pure Fantasy

Rocky Mountain Right has outdone itself this time with a stinging 30-second video:

How bad was Mark Udall's Monday debate performance? Even his empty platitudes were based in fantasy. Udall voted along party lines 96 percent of the time. Bob Schaffer voted along party lines 84 percent of the time.

Who is more independent and non-partisan? Despite Mark Udall's weak rhetoric, the facts don't lie.

Mark Udall Confronted about Cynical Sponsorship of Anti-Secret Ballot Bill

Via the Labor Pains blog, Coloradans for Employee Freedom caught up with Boulder liberal Mark Udall at what appears to be the July 4 Greeley Stampede parade:

EFCA = Employee Free Choice Act. Mark Udall seems to have forgotten his cynical sponsorship of EFCA, despite (as Labor Pains points out) having taken more than $1 million from Big Labor interests. Maybe because Udall realizes how dreadfully unpopular the anti-secret ballot measure is.

Mark Udall: Blindsided again.

Colorado Senate Battle Remains A Toss Up

The Cook Political Report updated its list of Senate seats from May, and Colorado's battle between Mark Udall (D-Boulder Liberal) and Bob Schaffer remains a toss up, despite early leads in the polls for Udall.