Saturday, February 9, 2008

Mark Udall Predicted to Support Obama

The Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University is trying to model the Democrat Superdelegates.

While Mark Udall, as the Denver Post noted, lacks the courage to say for whom he will vote at the convention, CCPS says that he will go for Obama.

They claim to have a 73.5% accuracy, which is better than flipping a coin.

Essentially, we are using information about the superdelegates who have pledged their support for a candidate to try to predict how the unpledged superdelegates might go. Our model includes information about whether the delegate is black, hispanic, or female. It also includes the percent who voted for Bush in 2004 in that delegate's state or congressional district. In addition, we have information about the percentage of the population in the delegate's state that has a college degree, that belongs to a union, and that lives in an urban area, since these have all been factors affecting whether states have supported Obama or Clinton

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